{"id":47369,"date":"2021-08-25T17:30:06","date_gmt":"2021-08-25T21:30:06","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.bloomberg.com\/professional\/insights\/trading\/bloombergnefs-global-ev-outlook-2021-commercial-vehicles\/"},"modified":"2025-12-30T18:04:52","modified_gmt":"2025-12-30T23:04:52","slug":"bloombergnefs-global-ev-outlook-2021-commercial-vehicles","status":"publish","type":[3762],"link":"https:\/\/www.bloomberg.com\/professional\/insights\/trading\/bloombergnefs-global-ev-outlook-2021-commercial-vehicles\/","title":{"rendered":"BloombergNEF\u2019s global EV outlook 2021: Commercial vehicles"},"content":{"rendered":"<div  class=\"bbg-row-container\">\n    <style>section[data-anchor=row-69fdba11a97d8]::before {\n\t\t\t\tbackground-color: #eeeeee;\n\t\t\t}<\/style>\n    <section class=\"bbg-row bg--custom-color  bg--eeeeee text--black bbg-row--full-bg-bleed\" data-anchor='row-69fdba11a97d8'>\n        \n        \n        <div\n            class=\"bbg-row--content\"\n                    >\n            \n            <p><div\n    class=\"bbg-column bbg-column--width-2\"\n    style=\"\"\n    >\n    \n<\/div><div\n    class=\"bbg-column bbg-column--width-8 bbg-column--valign-bottom\"\n    style=\"\"\n    >\n    <p>    <ul class=\"bbg-categories_list\">\n                    <li>\n                <a href=\"https:\/\/www.bloomberg.com\/professional\/insights\/category\/commodities\/\" rel=\"category tag\">\n                    Commodities\n                <\/a>\n            <\/li>\n                    <li>\n                <a href=\"https:\/\/www.bloomberg.com\/professional\/insights\/category\/markets\/\" rel=\"category tag\">\n                    Markets\n                <\/a>\n            <\/li>\n                    <li>\n                <a href=\"https:\/\/www.bloomberg.com\/professional\/insights\/category\/trading\/\" rel=\"category tag\">\n                    Trading\n                <\/a>\n            <\/li>\n            <\/ul>\n<div\n    class=\"bbg-spacer\"\n        style=\"height: 24px !important\"\n    >\n<\/div>    <h1 class=\"bbg-metadata bbg-metadata--title\">BloombergNEF\u2019s global EV outlook 2021: Commercial vehicles<\/h1>\n<\/p>\n\n<\/div>\n\n\n                    <\/div>\n    <\/section>\n<\/div>\n\n<div  class=\"bbg-row-container\">\n    <section class=\"bbg-row  text--black row-padding--top-compact row-padding--bottom-none bbg-row--full-bg-bleed\" data-anchor='row-69fdba11b02c8'>\n        \n        \n        <div\n            class=\"bbg-row--content\"\n                    >\n            \n            <p><div\n    class=\"bbg-column bbg-column--width-2\"\n    style=\"\"\n    >\n    \n<\/div><div\n    class=\"bbg-column bbg-column--width-8\"\n    style=\"\"\n    >\n    <p><div\n    class=\"bbg-spacer\"\n        style=\"height: 40px !important\"\n    >\n<\/div>    <p class=\"bbg-metadata bbg-metadata--date\">August 25, 2021<\/p>\n<\/p>\n\n<\/div>\n\n\n                    <\/div>\n    <\/section>\n<\/div>\n\n<div  class=\"bbg-row-container\">\n    <section class=\"bbg-row  text--black row-padding--top-none bbg-row--full-bg-bleed\" data-anchor='row-69fdba11b2070'>\n        \n        \n        <div\n            class=\"bbg-row--content\"\n                    >\n            \n            <p><div\n    class=\"bbg-column bbg-column--width-2\"\n    style=\"\"\n    >\n    \n<\/div><div\n    class=\"bbg-column bbg-column--width-8\"\n    style=\"\"\n    >\n    <p><div\n\tclass=\"bb-wysiwyg\"\n\t\t>\n\t<p><i><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">This analysis is from BloombergNEF. It appeared first on the Bloomberg Terminal.<\/span><\/i><\/p>\n<h2>Overview<\/h2>\n<ul>\n<li>In heavier duty segments, sales of electric trucks reach 30% by 2040, as cheap and dense batteries, and high-power charging stations make electrification suitable for long-haul, in addition to urban, operations \u2013 based on BloombergNEF\u2019s Economic Transition Scenario in the latest long-term Electric Vehicle Outlook 2021.<\/li>\n<li>Natural gas takes about a fifth of the global market for medium- and heavy-duty trucks, but plays an almost negligible role in the light-duty commercial vehicle segment. Compressed or liquefied natural gas truck sales are between 20% and 30% in the U.S., China and some European countries, but remain at less than 10% in markets, such as India, Japan and Australia.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n<\/div>\n<div\n\tclass=\"bb-wysiwyg\"\n\t\t>\n\t<ul>\n<li>Finally, fuel cell vehicles account for less than 3% of the medium- and heavy-duty truck sales by 2040 and about 1% of those in the LCVs. The share of hydrogen utilization is the highest in long-haul operations, but remains low in other use cases. China, some European countries, Japan and Korea see fuel cell truck sales between 7% and 10% in the medium- and heavy-duty segments by 2040.<\/li>\n<li>Very strong government support will be needed to achieve those sales. BloombergNEF estimates assume a certain scale-up of hydrogen production, storage and distribution. This infrastructure is still at a very early stage and also depends on hydrogen being adopted in areas such as industry and buildings.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<h2>Global commercial vehicle sales outlook by drivetrain and class<\/h2>\n\n<\/div>\n<div id=\"\" class=\"wpb_content_element bbg-single-image align-center\">\n    <figure class=\"bbg-single-image__figure\" style=\"max-width:1024px\">\n                <img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" width=\"800\" height=\"369\" src=\"https:\/\/assets.bbhub.io\/image\/v1\/resize?width=auto&amp;type=webp&amp;url=https:\/\/assets.bbhub.io\/professional\/sites\/10\/turtl-1234.png\" class=\"bbg-single-image__image attachment-large\" alt=\"BloombergNEF&#039;s Economic Transition Scenario\" title=\"BloombergNEF&#039;s Economic Transition Scenario\" srcset=\"https:\/\/assets.bbhub.io\/image\/v1\/resize?width=auto&amp;type=webp&amp;url=https:\/\/assets.bbhub.io\/professional\/sites\/10\/turtl-1234.png 800w, https:\/\/assets.bbhub.io\/image\/v1\/resize?width=auto&amp;type=webp&amp;url=https:\/\/assets.bbhub.io\/professional\/sites\/10\/turtl-1234.png 552w, https:\/\/assets.bbhub.io\/image\/v1\/resize?width=auto&amp;type=webp&amp;url=https:\/\/assets.bbhub.io\/professional\/sites\/10\/turtl-1234.png 768w, https:\/\/assets.bbhub.io\/image\/v1\/resize?width=auto&amp;type=webp&amp;url=https:\/\/assets.bbhub.io\/professional\/sites\/10\/turtl-1234.png 1536w, https:\/\/assets.bbhub.io\/image\/v1\/resize?width=auto&amp;type=webp&amp;url=https:\/\/assets.bbhub.io\/professional\/sites\/10\/turtl-1234.png 1550w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 800px) 100vw, 800px\" \/>\n        \n            <\/figure>\n<\/div>\n\n<div\n\tclass=\"bb-wysiwyg\"\n\t\t>\n\t<p><i><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Note: *BloombergNEF\u2019s Economic Transition Scenario (ETS) assumes no new policies or regulations are enacted that impact the market. It also does not assume any long-term climate targets are hit, or that any combustion vehicle phase-out targets that have been announced by countries, states, cities or companies are achieved. Instead, adoption is primarily driven by techno-economic trends and market forces. For a full explanation of the methodology for this scenario, refer to the <a href=\"https:\/\/about.bnef.com\/insights\/clean-transport\/electric-vehicle-outlook\/\">Long-Term Electric Vehicle Outlook report<\/a>.<\/span><\/i><\/p>\n<p><i><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">BloombergNEF (BNEF), Bloomberg\u2019s primary research service, covers clean energy, advanced transport, digital industry, innovative materials and commodities. BNEF helps corporate strategy, finance and policy professionals navigate change and generate opportunities. <a href=\"https:\/\/about.bnef.com\/insights\/\">Explore more Insights, Research, and Reports on the BNEF site<\/a><\/span><\/i><i><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">.\u00a0<\/span><\/i><\/p>\n\n<\/div>\n\n<\/div><div\n    class=\"bbg-column bbg-column--width-2\"\n    style=\"\"\n    >\n    \n<\/div>\n\n\n                    <\/div>\n    <\/section>\n<\/div>\n\n<div  class=\"bbg-row-container\">\n    <style>section[data-anchor=row-69fdba11bab81]::before {\n\t\t\t\tbackground-color: #eeeeee;\n\t\t\t}<\/style>\n    <section class=\"bbg-row bg--custom-color  bg--eeeeee text--black bbg-row--full-bg-bleed\" data-anchor='row-69fdba11bab81'>\n        \n        \n        <div\n            class=\"bbg-row--content\"\n                    >\n            \n            <div\n    class=\"bbg-column\"\n    style=\"\"\n    >\n    <div\n\tclass=\"bb-wysiwyg\"\n\t\t>\n\t<h2>Recommended for 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