{"id":47072,"date":"2015-02-24T09:00:19","date_gmt":"2015-02-24T14:00:19","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.bloomberg.com\/professional\/insights\/markets\/tracking-fed-funds-forecasts-rate-futures-volatility\/"},"modified":"2025-12-02T13:16:23","modified_gmt":"2025-12-02T18:16:23","slug":"tracking-fed-funds-forecasts-rate-futures-volatility","status":"publish","type":[3762],"link":"https:\/\/www.bloomberg.com\/professional\/insights\/markets\/tracking-fed-funds-forecasts-rate-futures-volatility\/","title":{"rendered":"Tracking Fed funds forecasts, rate futures volatility"},"content":{"rendered":"<div  class=\"bbg-row-container\">\n    <style>section[data-anchor=row-6a00bdb9038a3]::before {\n\t\t\t\tbackground-color: #eeeeee;\n\t\t\t}<\/style>\n    <section class=\"bbg-row bg--custom-color  bg--eeeeee text--black bbg-row--full-bg-bleed\" data-anchor='row-6a00bdb9038a3'>\n        \n        \n        <div\n            class=\"bbg-row--content\"\n                    >\n            \n            <p><div\n    class=\"bbg-column bbg-column--width-2\"\n    style=\"\"\n    >\n    \n<\/div><div\n    class=\"bbg-column bbg-column--width-8 bbg-column--valign-bottom\"\n    style=\"\"\n    >\n    <p>    <ul class=\"bbg-categories_list\">\n                    <li>\n                <a href=\"https:\/\/www.bloomberg.com\/professional\/insights\/category\/markets\/\" rel=\"category tag\">\n                    Markets\n                <\/a>\n            <\/li>\n            <\/ul>\n<div\n    class=\"bbg-spacer\"\n        style=\"height: 24px !important\"\n    >\n<\/div>    <h1 class=\"bbg-metadata bbg-metadata--title\">Tracking Fed funds forecasts, rate futures volatility<\/h1>\n<\/p>\n\n<\/div>\n\n\n                    <\/div>\n    <\/section>\n<\/div>\n\n<div  class=\"bbg-row-container\">\n    <section class=\"bbg-row  text--black row-padding--top-compact row-padding--bottom-none bbg-row--full-bg-bleed\" data-anchor='row-6a00bdb9094cf'>\n        \n        \n        <div\n            class=\"bbg-row--content\"\n                    >\n            \n            <p><div\n    class=\"bbg-column bbg-column--width-2\"\n    style=\"\"\n    >\n    \n<\/div><div\n    class=\"bbg-column bbg-column--width-8\"\n    style=\"\"\n    >\n    <p><div\n    class=\"bbg-spacer\"\n        style=\"height: 40px !important\"\n    >\n<\/div>    <p class=\"bbg-metadata bbg-metadata--date\">February 24, 2015<\/p>\n<\/p>\n\n<\/div>\n\n\n                    <\/div>\n    <\/section>\n<\/div>\n\n<div  class=\"bbg-row-container\">\n    <section class=\"bbg-row  text--black row-padding--top-none bbg-row--full-bg-bleed\" data-anchor='row-6a00bdb90ac37'>\n        \n        \n        <div\n            class=\"bbg-row--content\"\n                    >\n            \n            <p><div\n    class=\"bbg-column bbg-column--width-2\"\n    style=\"\"\n    >\n    \n<\/div><div\n    class=\"bbg-column bbg-column--width-8\"\n    style=\"\"\n    >\n    <div\n\tclass=\"bb-wysiwyg\"\n\t\t>\n\t<h3>The Background<\/h3>\n<p>The Federal Reserve last raised its benchmark interest-rate target in 2006. The <a href=\"https:\/\/www.newyorkfed.org\/microeconomics\/topics\/credit-cards-auto-loans\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">federal funds rate<\/a> is what banks charge one another to lend money overnight. This affects the rates financial institutions charge businesses and consumers for loans.<\/p>\n<p>Since 2008, the central bank has held the federal funds rate in a range of zero to 0.25 percent to support the struggling economy and later to help its recovery. Another major economic stimulus effort in the wake of the financial crisis was the Fed\u2019s\u00a0<a href=\"https:\/\/www.bloomberg.com\/quicktake\/federal-reserve-quantitative-easing-tape\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">quantitative easing program<\/a>, in which it purchased billions of dollars of bonds each month starting in 2009, ultimately adding more than $3.5 trillion to its balance sheet.<\/p>\n<h3>The Issue<\/h3>\n<p>After stepping down monthly bond purchases in December 2013, the Fed brought its quantitative easing program to an end in October 2014. The move signaled the central bank\u2019s growing confidence in the economy. However, officials cautioned that rates would not rise immediately. Federal Reserve Chair Janet Yellen said they would stay low for a \u201cconsiderable time,\u201d leaving investors\u00a0<a href=\"https:\/\/www.bloomberg.com\/news\/articles\/2015-02-19\/u-s-bonds-gain-for-second-day-as-reports-signal-slower-growth\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">speculating about the actual timing<\/a> and size of increases.<\/p>\n<p>Following the\u00a0<a href=\"https:\/\/www.bloomberg.com\/news\/articles\/2015-01-28\/fed-raises-assessment-of-economy-while-staying-patient-on-rates\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">January meeting of the Federal Open Market Committee<\/a>, Yellen said policymakers are unlikely to begin raising rates \u201cfor at least the next couple of meetings,\u201d suggesting rates will be unchanged until midyear. The Fed is monitoring an\u00a0<a href=\"https:\/\/www.bloomberg.com\/opinion\/articles\/2015-02-06\/the-u-s-jobs-market-is-still-missing-2-9-million-workers\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">improving labor market<\/a>, but\u00a0<a href=\"https:\/\/www.bloomberg.com\/news\/articles\/2015-02-10\/powell-says-fed-rate-patience-still-appropriate-after-jobs-data\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">inflation remains below its 2 percent target<\/a>. In addition,\u00a0<a href=\"https:\/\/www.bloomberg.com\/view\/articles\/2014-07-15\/yellen-is-right-workers-need-a-raise\">wages<\/a> are stagnant, and Yellen cited global turmoil as a risk factor in January.<\/p>\n<p>The Federal Reserve Board of Governors voted unanimously for the statement that followed the January meeting, but\u00a0<a href=\"https:\/\/www.bloomberg.com\/news\/articles\/2015-02-18\/many-fed-officials-inclined-to-stay-at-zero-longer-minutes-show\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">minutes show they hold diverse opinions<\/a> on when rates should rise.<\/p>\n<h3>Tracking Fed Funds Forecasts, Rate Futures Volatility<\/h3>\n<p>Bloomberg&#8217;s Excel templates and volatility functions track Fed predictions and their effect on markets. Bloomberg charts Fed governors&#8217; individual rate projections as well as interest rate curves on a &#8220;dots&#8221; plot.<\/p>\n\n<\/div>\n<div\n    class=\"bbg-spacer bbg-spacer--md\"\n    >\n<\/div><div id=\"\" class=\"wpb_content_element bbg-single-image align-center\">\n    <figure class=\"bbg-single-image__figure\" style=\"max-width:100%\">\n                <img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" width=\"552\" height=\"361\" src=\"https:\/\/assets.bbhub.io\/image\/v1\/resize?width=auto&amp;type=webp&amp;url=https:\/\/assets.bbhub.io\/professional\/sites\/10\/imported\/professional\/sites\/4\/Fed-funds-552x361.png\" class=\"bbg-single-image__image attachment-full\" alt=\"\" title=\"Fed-funds-552x361\" \/>\n        \n            <\/figure>\n<\/div>\n\n<div\n    class=\"bbg-spacer bbg-spacer--md\"\n    >\n<\/div><div\n\tclass=\"bb-wysiwyg\"\n\t\t>\n\t<p><em>This content was provided by the Bloomberg Professional Service market specialist team. For more information on this or other functionality click here to request a demo with a Bloomberg sales representative. Existing clients can press \u2039HELP HELP\u203a on their Bloomberg keyboard.<\/em><\/p>\n\n<\/div>\n\n<\/div>\n\n\n                    <\/div>\n    <\/section>\n<\/div>\n\n<div  class=\"bbg-row-container\">\n    <style>section[data-anchor=row-6a00bdb911102]::before {\n\t\t\t\tbackground-color: #eeeeee;\n\t\t\t}<\/style>\n    <section class=\"bbg-row bg--custom-color  bg--eeeeee text--black bbg-row--full-bg-bleed\" data-anchor='row-6a00bdb911102'>\n        \n        \n        <div\n            class=\"bbg-row--content\"\n                    >\n            \n            <div\n    class=\"bbg-column\"\n    style=\"\"\n    >\n    <div\n\tclass=\"bb-wysiwyg\"\n\t\t>\n\t<h2>Recommended for you<\/h2>\n\n<\/div>\n<div\n    class=\"bbg-spacer\"\n        style=\"height: 24px !important\"\n    >\n<\/div><script>\n    window.feed = window.feed || {};\n    window.feed['6a00bdb9138bf'] = 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The federal funds rate is what banks charge one another to lend money overnight. This affects the rates financial institutions charge businesses and consumers for loans. Since 2008, the central bank has held the federal funds rate in a range of zero&hellip;<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":91,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"template-article.php","format":"standard","meta":{"_yoast_wpseo_primary_category":"453","footnotes":""},"categories":[453],"tags":[],"series":[],"class_list":["post-47072","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-markets","type-article"],"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO plugin v19.11 - https:\/\/yoast.com\/wordpress\/plugins\/seo\/ -->\n<title>Tracking Fed funds forecasts, rate futures volatility | Insights | Bloomberg Professional Services<\/title>\n<meta name=\"description\" content=\"After stepping down monthly bond purchases in December 2013, the Fed brought its quantitative easing program to an end in October 2014. The move signaled the central bank\u2019s growing confidence in the economy. 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