{"id":46925,"date":"2024-01-29T14:21:34","date_gmt":"2024-01-29T19:21:34","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.bloomberg.com\/professional\/insights\/treasury\/asia-currencies-limp-into-2024-on-red-sea-china-fed-woes\/"},"modified":"2024-08-19T11:31:06","modified_gmt":"2024-08-19T15:31:06","slug":"asia-currencies-limp-into-2024-on-red-sea-china-fed-woes","status":"publish","type":[3762],"link":"https:\/\/www.bloomberg.com\/professional\/insights\/treasury\/asia-currencies-limp-into-2024-on-red-sea-china-fed-woes\/","title":{"rendered":"Asia currencies limp into 2024 on Red Sea, China, Fed woes"},"content":{"rendered":"<div  class=\"bbg-row-container\">\n    <style>section[data-anchor=row-6a0c585367a7d]::before {\n\t\t\t\tbackground-color: #eeeeee;\n\t\t\t}<\/style>\n    <section class=\"bbg-row bg--custom-color  bg--eeeeee text--black bbg-row--full-bg-bleed\" data-anchor='row-6a0c585367a7d'>\n        \n        \n        <div\n            class=\"bbg-row--content\"\n                    >\n            \n            <p><div\n    class=\"bbg-column bbg-column--width-2\"\n    style=\"\"\n    >\n    \n<\/div><div\n    class=\"bbg-column bbg-column--width-8 bbg-column--valign-bottom\"\n    style=\"\"\n    >\n    <p>    <ul class=\"bbg-categories_list\">\n                    <li>\n                <a href=\"https:\/\/www.bloomberg.com\/professional\/insights\/category\/markets\/\" rel=\"category tag\">\n                    Markets\n                <\/a>\n            <\/li>\n                    <li>\n                <a href=\"https:\/\/www.bloomberg.com\/professional\/insights\/category\/trading\/\" rel=\"category tag\">\n                    Trading\n                <\/a>\n            <\/li>\n                    <li>\n                <a href=\"https:\/\/www.bloomberg.com\/professional\/insights\/category\/treasury\/\" rel=\"category tag\">\n                    Treasury\n                <\/a>\n            <\/li>\n            <\/ul>\n<div\n    class=\"bbg-spacer\"\n        style=\"height: 24px !important\"\n    >\n<\/div>    <h1 class=\"bbg-metadata bbg-metadata--title\">Asia currencies limp into 2024 on Red Sea, China, Fed woes<\/h1>\n<\/p>\n\n<\/div>\n\n\n                    <\/div>\n    <\/section>\n<\/div>\n\n<div  class=\"bbg-row-container\">\n    <section class=\"bbg-row  text--black row-padding--top-compact row-padding--bottom-none bbg-row--full-bg-bleed\" data-anchor='row-6a0c58536d88d'>\n        \n        \n        <div\n            class=\"bbg-row--content\"\n                    >\n            \n            <p><div\n    class=\"bbg-column bbg-column--width-2\"\n    style=\"\"\n    >\n    \n<\/div><div\n    class=\"bbg-column bbg-column--width-8\"\n    style=\"\"\n    >\n    <p><div\n    class=\"bbg-spacer\"\n        style=\"height: 40px !important\"\n    >\n<\/div><div\n\tclass=\"bb-wysiwyg byline\"\n\t\t>\n\t<p><strong>Functions for the Market<\/strong><\/p>\n\n<\/div>\n    <p class=\"bbg-metadata bbg-metadata--date\">January 29, 2024<\/p>\n<\/p>\n\n<\/div>\n\n\n                    <\/div>\n    <\/section>\n<\/div>\n\n<div  class=\"bbg-row-container\">\n    <section class=\"bbg-row  text--black row-padding--top-none bbg-row--full-bg-bleed\" data-anchor='row-6a0c58536f990'>\n        \n        \n        <div\n            class=\"bbg-row--content\"\n                    >\n            \n            <p><div\n    class=\"bbg-column bbg-column--width-2\"\n    style=\"\"\n    >\n    \n<\/div><div\n    class=\"bbg-column bbg-column--width-8\"\n    style=\"\"\n    >\n    <div\n\tclass=\"bb-wysiwyg\"\n\t\t>\n\t<h2>Background<\/h2>\n<p>The resilience of Asian currencies is being tested by receding bets over the Federal Reserve\u2019s interest rate cuts, geopolitical conflicts in the Red Sea and a deteriorating economy in China.<\/p>\n<p>Futures traders have retreated from bets on a March Fed rate cut. This sent ripples across riskier markets, with South Korea\u2019s won falling 2% over the past week. Option traders are favoring dollar calls against Asian currencies. Without a clearer turnaround in regional exports, the region\u2019s currencies may remain victims of higher volatility.<\/p>\n\n<\/div>\n<div class=\"bbg-interstitial\" aria-label=\"interstitial\" tabindex=\"0\">\n\t<style>\n\t\t.bbg-interstitial #card_1.bbg-card_hasCta{\n\t\t\tbackground:rgba(0,0,0,0);\n\t\t\tpadding: 104px;\n\t\t\t\n\t\t\t\n\t\t}\n\t\t.bbg-interstitial #card_1.bbg-card_hasCta .bbg-card__content, .bbg-interstitial #card_1.bbg-card_hasCta .bbg-card__content p{\n\t\t\tcolor:inherit;\n\t\t}\n\t\t@media (max-width: 768px) {\n\t\t\t.bbg-interstitial #card_1.bbg-card_hasCta{\n\t\t\t\tpadding: 80px 32px;\n\t\t\t}\n\t\t}\n\t\t@media (max-width: 480px) {\n\t\t\t.bbg-interstitial #card_1.bbg-card_hasCta{\n\t\t\t\tpadding: 80px 18px;\n\t\t\t}\n\t\t}\n\t<\/style>\n\t<div class=\"wpb_content_element bbg-card  bbg-card-dark bbg-card_hasCta has_interstitial\" id=\"card_1\" data-card_type=\"no_image\">\n  \n  \n  <div class=\"bbg-card__innerwrapper\">\n    <div class=\"bbg-card__content\">\n      \n      \n                      <h3 class=\"bbg-card__title\">Transform your treasury<\/h3>\n      \n              <div class=\"bbg-card__wysiwyg bb-wysiwyg\"><p>Learn more<\/p>\n<\/div>\n          <\/div>\n\n          \n<div\n  id=\"cta_3286145548207754490\"\n  class=\"wpb_content_element bbg-cta icon icon-arrow\">\n  <style>\n    \n    \n    \n  <\/style>\n  <div\n    class=\"bbg-cta-link link-holder\"\n    data-links-type=\"cta-links\">\n    <p class=\"bbg-cta-p right\">\n      <a\n        class=\"bbg-cta-link link interstitial_cta\"\n        href=\"https:\/\/www.bloomberg.com\/professional\/solutions\/corporations\/treasury\/\"\n        target=\"_blank\"\n        rel=\"\"\n        data-section-name=\"\"\n                role=\"button\"\n        aria-label=\"Learn more\"\n        >\n                <\/a>\n    <\/p>\n  <\/div>\n<\/div>\n\n      <\/div>\n\n  <\/div>\n\n<\/div>\n<div\n\tclass=\"bb-wysiwyg\"\n\t\t>\n\t<h2>The issue<\/h2>\n<p>Chances of a rate cut have declined significantly from earlier implications of a full quarter-point reduction. Analysis shows that regional currencies have retreated as doubts over a Fed cut grow. Stronger-than-expected US retail sales data, meanwhile, have bumped up GDP expectations and motivated a reassessment of the likely path for US monetary policy.<\/p>\n<p>There are other factors in play. Foreign investors accelerated selling of Asian stocks as the US escalated strikes on Yemen\u2019s Houthis, while China data disappointed amid investor pessimism about the yuan. Risk reversals for major Asian currencies have turned negative as traders curbed enthusiasm.<\/p>\n<p>The flight to the dollar as a haven strengthened in early 2024, with risk reversals indicating deteriorating sentiment on Asian currencies. Implied volatility is higher for dollar call options than for puts across all four currencies. Notable is a big slide in the 25-delta 3-month USDTWD risk reversal.<\/p>\n<p>The options market is signaling higher volatility for the Korean won during 2024. The three-month USDKRW options skew suggests traders are becoming more negative on the Korean won, a trend also seen for the one-year contracts.<\/p>\n<p>Growth in South Korean exports moderated at the start of the year, suggesting any recovery in global trade this year could be bumpy. For now, economists are less optimistic overall. Asia Ex-Japan\u2019s real GDP growth is forecast to moderate notably this quarter as the Chinese economy is seen extending its weakness, while Indian growth is also likely to continue letting up.<\/p>\n<h2>Tracking<\/h2>\n<p>Use Bloomberg\u2019s WIRP, WCRS, OVDV, GP and ECFC functions to analyze the currency market. Run NSUB FFMSTORY to subscribe to functions-based stories.<\/p>\n\n<\/div>\n<div id=\"\" class=\"wpb_content_element bbg-single-image align-center\">\n    <figure class=\"bbg-single-image__figure\" style=\"max-width:1024px\">\n                <img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" width=\"800\" height=\"480\" src=\"https:\/\/assets.bbhub.io\/image\/v1\/resize?width=auto&amp;type=webp&amp;url=https:\/\/assets.bbhub.io\/professional\/sites\/10\/Screen-Shot-2024-01-29-at-2.17.44-PM.png\" class=\"bbg-single-image__image attachment-large\" alt=\"Asia currency ffm\" title=\"Screen-Shot-2024-01-29-at-2.17.44-PM\" srcset=\"https:\/\/assets.bbhub.io\/image\/v1\/resize?width=auto&amp;type=webp&amp;url=https:\/\/assets.bbhub.io\/professional\/sites\/10\/Screen-Shot-2024-01-29-at-2.17.44-PM.png 800w, https:\/\/assets.bbhub.io\/image\/v1\/resize?width=auto&amp;type=webp&amp;url=https:\/\/assets.bbhub.io\/professional\/sites\/10\/Screen-Shot-2024-01-29-at-2.17.44-PM.png 552w, https:\/\/assets.bbhub.io\/image\/v1\/resize?width=auto&amp;type=webp&amp;url=https:\/\/assets.bbhub.io\/professional\/sites\/10\/Screen-Shot-2024-01-29-at-2.17.44-PM.png 100w, https:\/\/assets.bbhub.io\/image\/v1\/resize?width=auto&amp;type=webp&amp;url=https:\/\/assets.bbhub.io\/professional\/sites\/10\/Screen-Shot-2024-01-29-at-2.17.44-PM.png 768w, https:\/\/assets.bbhub.io\/image\/v1\/resize?width=auto&amp;type=webp&amp;url=https:\/\/assets.bbhub.io\/professional\/sites\/10\/Screen-Shot-2024-01-29-at-2.17.44-PM.png 1536w, https:\/\/assets.bbhub.io\/image\/v1\/resize?width=auto&amp;type=webp&amp;url=https:\/\/assets.bbhub.io\/professional\/sites\/10\/Screen-Shot-2024-01-29-at-2.17.44-PM.png 600w, https:\/\/assets.bbhub.io\/image\/v1\/resize?width=auto&amp;type=webp&amp;url=https:\/\/assets.bbhub.io\/professional\/sites\/10\/Screen-Shot-2024-01-29-at-2.17.44-PM.png 1617w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 800px) 100vw, 800px\" \/>\n        \n            <\/figure>\n<\/div>\n\n<div\n\tclass=\"bb-wysiwyg\"\n\t\t>\n\t<p><em>For more information on this or other functionality on the Bloomberg Professional Service, click here to request a demo with a Bloomberg sales representative. Existing clients can press &lt;HELP HELP&gt; on their Bloomberg keyboard.<\/em><\/p>\n\n<\/div>\n\n<\/div><div\n    class=\"bbg-column bbg-column--width-2\"\n    style=\"\"\n    >\n    \n<\/div>\n\n\n                    <\/div>\n    <\/section>\n<\/div>\n\n<div  class=\"bbg-row-container\">\n    <style>section[data-anchor=row-6a0c585379a4c]::before {\n\t\t\t\tbackground-color: #eeeeee;\n\t\t\t}<\/style>\n    <section class=\"bbg-row bg--custom-color  bg--eeeeee text--black bbg-row--full-bg-bleed\" data-anchor='row-6a0c585379a4c'>\n        \n        \n        <div\n            class=\"bbg-row--content\"\n                    >\n            \n            <div\n    class=\"bbg-column\"\n    style=\"\"\n    >\n    <div\n\tclass=\"bb-wysiwyg\"\n\t\t>\n\t<h2>Recommended for you<\/h2>\n\n<\/div>\n<div\n    class=\"bbg-spacer\"\n        style=\"height: 24px !important\"\n    >\n<\/div><script>\n    window.feed = window.feed || {};\n    window.feed['6a0c58537c49c'] = 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Now, let us do that for you.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n          <\/div>\n\n          \n<div\n  id=\"cta_7483850008328052542\"\n  class=\"wpb_content_element bbg-cta icon icon-arrow\">\n  <style>\n    \n    \n    \n  <\/style>\n  <div\n    class=\"bbg-cta-link link-holder\"\n    data-links-type=\"cta-links\">\n    <p class=\"bbg-cta-p right\">\n      <a\n        class=\"bbg-cta-link link interstitial_cta\"\n        href=\"https:\/\/www.bloomberg.com\/professional\/request-demo\/\"\n        target=\"\"\n        rel=\"\"\n        data-section-name=\"\"\n                role=\"button\"\n        aria-label=\"Learn more\"\n        >\n                <\/a>\n    <\/p>\n  <\/div>\n<\/div>\n\n      <\/div>\n\n  <\/div>\n\n<\/div>\n\n\n<\/div>\n\n\n                    <\/div>\n    <\/section>\n<\/div>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>The resilience of Asian currencies is being tested by receding bets over the Federal Reserve\u2019s interest rate cuts, geopolitical conflicts in the Red Sea and a deteriorating economy in China.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1679,"featured_media":45487,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"template-article.php","format":"standard","meta":{"_yoast_wpseo_primary_category":"449","footnotes":""},"categories":[453,444,449],"tags":[3670,445],"series":[],"class_list":["post-46925","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-markets","category-trading","category-treasury","tag-functions-for-the-market","tag-sales-and-trading","type-article"],"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO plugin v19.11 - https:\/\/yoast.com\/wordpress\/plugins\/seo\/ -->\n<title>Asia currencies limp into 2024 on Red Sea, China, Fed woes | Insights | Bloomberg Professional Services<\/title>\n<meta name=\"description\" content=\"The resilience of Asian currencies is being tested by receding bets over the Federal Reserve\u2019s interest rate cuts, geopolitical conflicts in the Red 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