{"id":46825,"date":"2023-09-26T16:00:53","date_gmt":"2023-09-26T20:00:53","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.bloomberg.com\/professional\/insights\/trading\/e-commerce-surge-can-add-1-trillion-to-us-retail-sales-by-2027\/"},"modified":"2023-10-31T10:52:17","modified_gmt":"2023-10-31T14:52:17","slug":"e-commerce-surge-can-add-1-trillion-to-us-retail-sales-by-2027","status":"publish","type":[3762],"link":"https:\/\/www.bloomberg.com\/professional\/insights\/trading\/e-commerce-surge-can-add-1-trillion-to-us-retail-sales-by-2027\/","title":{"rendered":"E-commerce surge can add $1 trillion to US retail sales by 2027"},"content":{"rendered":"<div  class=\"bbg-row-container\">\n    <style>section[data-anchor=row-6a02780d66a68]::before {\n\t\t\t\tbackground-color: #eeeeee;\n\t\t\t}<\/style>\n    <section class=\"bbg-row bg--custom-color  bg--eeeeee text--black bbg-row--full-bg-bleed\" data-anchor='row-6a02780d66a68'>\n        \n        \n        <div\n            class=\"bbg-row--content\"\n                    >\n            \n            <p><div\n    class=\"bbg-column bbg-column--width-2\"\n    style=\"\"\n    >\n    \n<\/div><div\n    class=\"bbg-column bbg-column--width-8 bbg-column--valign-bottom\"\n    style=\"\"\n    >\n    <p>    <ul class=\"bbg-categories_list\">\n                    <li>\n                <a href=\"https:\/\/www.bloomberg.com\/professional\/insights\/category\/trading\/\" rel=\"category tag\">\n                    Trading\n                <\/a>\n            <\/li>\n            <\/ul>\n<div\n    class=\"bbg-spacer\"\n        style=\"height: 24px !important\"\n    >\n<\/div>    <h1 class=\"bbg-metadata bbg-metadata--title\">E-commerce surge can add $1 trillion to US retail sales by 2027<\/h1>\n<\/p>\n\n<\/div>\n\n\n                    <\/div>\n    <\/section>\n<\/div>\n\n<div  class=\"bbg-row-container\">\n    <section class=\"bbg-row  text--black row-padding--top-compact row-padding--bottom-none bbg-row--full-bg-bleed\" data-anchor='row-6a02780d6cd32'>\n        \n        \n        <div\n            class=\"bbg-row--content\"\n                    >\n            \n            <p><div\n    class=\"bbg-column bbg-column--width-2\"\n    style=\"\"\n    >\n    \n<\/div><div\n    class=\"bbg-column bbg-column--width-8\"\n    style=\"\"\n    >\n    <p><div\n    class=\"bbg-spacer\"\n        style=\"height: 40px !important\"\n    >\n<\/div><div\n\tclass=\"bb-wysiwyg byline\"\n\t\t>\n\t<p><strong>Bloomberg Intelligence<\/strong><\/p>\n\n<\/div>\n    <p class=\"bbg-metadata bbg-metadata--date\">September 26, 2023<\/p>\n<\/p>\n\n<\/div>\n\n\n                    <\/div>\n    <\/section>\n<\/div>\n\n<div  class=\"bbg-row-container\">\n    <section class=\"bbg-row  text--black row-padding--top-none bbg-row--full-bg-bleed\" data-anchor='row-6a02780d6f4bb'>\n        \n        \n        <div\n            class=\"bbg-row--content\"\n                    >\n            \n            <p><div\n    class=\"bbg-column bbg-column--width-2\"\n    style=\"\"\n    >\n    \n<\/div><div\n    class=\"bbg-column bbg-column--width-8\"\n    style=\"\"\n    >\n    <p><div\n\tclass=\"bb-wysiwyg\"\n\t\t>\n\t<p><em>This article was written by Bloomberg Intelligence Senior Industry Analyst Poonam Goyal. This article appeared first on the Bloomberg Terminal.\u00a0<\/em><\/p>\n<p>Digital sales could jump to 33% of US retail revenue by 2027 from 25% last year, based on our scenario analysis, as new sales channels like social, voice and video compound a boost provided by pandemic lockdowns. E-commerce natives such as Amazon and brick-and-mortar giants like Walmart will be central to adding around $1 trillion to online sales, with natives making up more than half. AI, e-wallets, augmented reality and cloud-based software that assist smaller merchants may also speed the transition. Macy&#8217;s, Kroger, Best Buy and Home Depot are well positioned among traditional retailers.<\/p>\n\n<\/div>\n<div class=\"bbg-interstitial\" aria-label=\"interstitial\" tabindex=\"0\">\n\t<style>\n\t\t.bbg-interstitial #card_1.bbg-card_hasCta{\n\t\t\tbackground:rgba(0,0,0,0);\n\t\t\tpadding: 104px;\n\t\t\t\n\t\t\t\n\t\t}\n\t\t.bbg-interstitial #card_1.bbg-card_hasCta .bbg-card__content, .bbg-interstitial #card_1.bbg-card_hasCta .bbg-card__content p{\n\t\t\tcolor:inherit;\n\t\t}\n\t\t@media (max-width: 768px) {\n\t\t\t.bbg-interstitial #card_1.bbg-card_hasCta{\n\t\t\t\tpadding: 80px 32px;\n\t\t\t}\n\t\t}\n\t\t@media (max-width: 480px) {\n\t\t\t.bbg-interstitial #card_1.bbg-card_hasCta{\n\t\t\t\tpadding: 80px 18px;\n\t\t\t}\n\t\t}\n\t<\/style>\n\t<div class=\"wpb_content_element bbg-card  bbg-card-dark bbg-card_hasCta has_interstitial\" id=\"card_1\" data-card_type=\"no_image\">\n  \n  \n  <div class=\"bbg-card__innerwrapper\">\n    <div class=\"bbg-card__content\">\n      \n      \n                      <h3 class=\"bbg-card__title\">Bloomberg Intelligence: Data-driven research<\/h3>\n      \n              <div class=\"bbg-card__wysiwyg bb-wysiwyg\"><p>Learn more<\/p>\n<\/div>\n          <\/div>\n\n          \n<div\n  id=\"cta_970501772705235271\"\n  class=\"wpb_content_element bbg-cta icon icon-arrow\">\n  <style>\n    \n    \n    \n  <\/style>\n  <div\n    class=\"bbg-cta-link link-holder\"\n    data-links-type=\"cta-links\">\n    <p class=\"bbg-cta-p right\">\n      <a\n        class=\"bbg-cta-link link interstitial_cta\"\n        href=\"https:\/\/www.bloomberg.com\/professional\/products\/bloomberg-terminal\/research\/bloomberg-intelligence\/\"\n        target=\"_blank\"\n        rel=\"\"\n        data-section-name=\"\"\n                role=\"button\"\n        aria-label=\"Learn more\"\n        >\n                <\/a>\n    <\/p>\n  <\/div>\n<\/div>\n\n      <\/div>\n\n  <\/div>\n\n<\/div>\n<div\n\tclass=\"bb-wysiwyg\"\n\t\t>\n\t<h2>US E-commerce heads to $2.55 trillion as Amazon gets company<\/h2>\n<p>E-commerce is poised to hit $2.55 trillion by 2027, making up 33% of US retail sales from 25% today, according to our analysis. Adoption of generative AI, low barriers to entry and growing use of online marketplaces are key catalysts. Though Amazon leads the market, brick-and-mortar stores are gaining quickly after investing heavily in omnichannel capabilities.<\/p>\n<h2>Amazon, Walmart, Macy&#8217;s help lead digital wave<\/h2>\n<p class=\"bi-text\">US retailers could add almost $1 trillion in e-commerce sales through 2027, according to our scenario analysis, driven by sharp increases at digital natives and non-natives alike. Investments in payments, fulfillment, marketplaces and new technologies like generative AI will fuel growth as consumers demand more convenience. Though Amazon.com will continue to lead the gains, Macy&#8217;s, Kroger and Best Buy are also making strides. Walmart has focused on quickly bolstering its marketplace, expanding its assortment and launching its own fulfillment service to compete with the e-tail behemoth.<\/p>\n<p class=\"bi-text\">Amazon is the market-share leader, with its first- and third-party offerings catering to over 160 million Prime members in the US. But niche digital natives are expanding fast and chipping away at brick-and-mortar.<\/p>\n\n<\/div>\n<div id=\"\" class=\"wpb_content_element bbg-single-image align-center\">\n    <figure class=\"bbg-single-image__figure\" style=\"max-width:1024px\">\n                <img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" width=\"535\" height=\"520\" src=\"https:\/\/assets.bbhub.io\/image\/v1\/resize?width=auto&amp;type=webp&amp;url=https:\/\/assets.bbhub.io\/professional\/sites\/10\/commerce.png\" class=\"bbg-single-image__image attachment-large\" alt=\"\" title=\"commerce\" \/>\n        \n            <\/figure>\n<\/div>\n\n<div\n\tclass=\"bb-wysiwyg\"\n\t\t>\n\t<h2>Solid sales growth to build on pandemic&#8217;s pop<\/h2>\n<p class=\"bi-text\">Though US digital sales gains have normalized since the pandemic&#8217;s surge, e-commerce could still grow at a 10% compound annual rate to $2.55 trillion (excluding gas) in 2027 from $1.57 trillion last year, based on our scenario analysis. Almost 60% of the increase may be driven by digitally native retailers. Traditional brick-and-mortar stores might add more than $330 billion in online sales, reaching about $1.06 trillion in 2027 as they expand their omnichannel capabilities and invest in generative AI, social commerce and fulfillment. Though e-commerce should remain at 25% of total retail this year, growth could start accelerating in 2024, taking penetration to 33% in 2027.<\/p>\n<p class=\"bi-text\">Click on the exhibit to see our interactive scenario analysis and its methodology.<\/p>\n\n<\/div>\n<div id=\"\" class=\"wpb_content_element bbg-single-image align-center\">\n    <figure class=\"bbg-single-image__figure\" style=\"max-width:1024px\">\n                <img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" width=\"538\" height=\"373\" src=\"https:\/\/assets.bbhub.io\/image\/v1\/resize?width=auto&amp;type=webp&amp;url=https:\/\/assets.bbhub.io\/professional\/sites\/10\/sales.png\" class=\"bbg-single-image__image attachment-large\" alt=\"\" title=\"sales\" \/>\n        \n            <\/figure>\n<\/div>\n\n<div\n\tclass=\"bb-wysiwyg\"\n\t\t>\n\t<h2>Online share has room to rise across sectors<\/h2>\n<p class=\"bi-text\">Digital natives will likely drive most e-commerce gains, but brick-and-mortar companies could increase their share as the pandemic-induced shift is cemented. Mass merchants like Walmart, Target and Costco may make the greatest contribution to online sales as they ramp up digital efforts. E-commerce penetration for apparel and electronics could reach equilibrium in the next several years, but automotive&#8217;s digital share might continue to lag behind as most new- and used-vehicle sales, repair and maintenance are conducted in person.<\/p>\n<p class=\"bi-text\">The automotive industry&#8217;s resistance may keep digital below 50% of overall US sales as the sector accounts for 22% of retail&#8217;s total.<\/p>\n\n<\/div>\n<div id=\"\" class=\"wpb_content_element bbg-single-image align-center\">\n    <figure class=\"bbg-single-image__figure\" style=\"max-width:1024px\">\n                <img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" width=\"800\" height=\"491\" src=\"https:\/\/assets.bbhub.io\/image\/v1\/resize?width=auto&amp;type=webp&amp;url=https:\/\/assets.bbhub.io\/professional\/sites\/10\/digital1.png\" class=\"bbg-single-image__image attachment-large\" alt=\"\" title=\"digital1\" srcset=\"https:\/\/assets.bbhub.io\/image\/v1\/resize?width=auto&amp;type=webp&amp;url=https:\/\/assets.bbhub.io\/professional\/sites\/10\/digital1.png 800w, https:\/\/assets.bbhub.io\/image\/v1\/resize?width=auto&amp;type=webp&amp;url=https:\/\/assets.bbhub.io\/professional\/sites\/10\/digital1.png 552w, https:\/\/assets.bbhub.io\/image\/v1\/resize?width=auto&amp;type=webp&amp;url=https:\/\/assets.bbhub.io\/professional\/sites\/10\/digital1.png 100w, https:\/\/assets.bbhub.io\/image\/v1\/resize?width=auto&amp;type=webp&amp;url=https:\/\/assets.bbhub.io\/professional\/sites\/10\/digital1.png 768w, https:\/\/assets.bbhub.io\/image\/v1\/resize?width=auto&amp;type=webp&amp;url=https:\/\/assets.bbhub.io\/professional\/sites\/10\/digital1.png 600w, https:\/\/assets.bbhub.io\/image\/v1\/resize?width=auto&amp;type=webp&amp;url=https:\/\/assets.bbhub.io\/professional\/sites\/10\/digital1.png 950w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 800px) 100vw, 800px\" \/>\n        \n            <\/figure>\n<\/div>\n\n<div\n\tclass=\"bb-wysiwyg\"\n\t\t>\n\t<h2>E-commerce penetration to expand through 2027<\/h2>\n\n<\/div>\n<div id=\"\" class=\"wpb_content_element bbg-single-image align-center\">\n    <figure class=\"bbg-single-image__figure\" style=\"max-width:1024px\">\n                <img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" width=\"800\" height=\"420\" src=\"https:\/\/assets.bbhub.io\/image\/v1\/resize?width=auto&amp;type=webp&amp;url=https:\/\/assets.bbhub.io\/professional\/sites\/10\/share1.png\" class=\"bbg-single-image__image attachment-large\" alt=\"\" title=\"share1\" srcset=\"https:\/\/assets.bbhub.io\/image\/v1\/resize?width=auto&amp;type=webp&amp;url=https:\/\/assets.bbhub.io\/professional\/sites\/10\/share1.png 800w, https:\/\/assets.bbhub.io\/image\/v1\/resize?width=auto&amp;type=webp&amp;url=https:\/\/assets.bbhub.io\/professional\/sites\/10\/share1.png 552w, https:\/\/assets.bbhub.io\/image\/v1\/resize?width=auto&amp;type=webp&amp;url=https:\/\/assets.bbhub.io\/professional\/sites\/10\/share1.png 768w, https:\/\/assets.bbhub.io\/image\/v1\/resize?width=auto&amp;type=webp&amp;url=https:\/\/assets.bbhub.io\/professional\/sites\/10\/share1.png 600w, https:\/\/assets.bbhub.io\/image\/v1\/resize?width=auto&amp;type=webp&amp;url=https:\/\/assets.bbhub.io\/professional\/sites\/10\/share1.png 947w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 800px) 100vw, 800px\" \/>\n        \n            <\/figure>\n<\/div>\n\n<\/div><div\n    class=\"bbg-column bbg-column--width-2\"\n    style=\"\"\n    >\n    \n<\/div>\n\n\n                    <\/div>\n    <\/section>\n<\/div>\n\n<div  class=\"bbg-row-container\">\n    <style>section[data-anchor=row-6a02780d819f8]::before {\n\t\t\t\tbackground-color: #eeeeee;\n\t\t\t}<\/style>\n    <section class=\"bbg-row bg--custom-color  bg--eeeeee text--black bbg-row--full-bg-bleed\" data-anchor='row-6a02780d819f8'>\n        \n        \n   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