{"id":46552,"date":"2023-02-23T10:33:28","date_gmt":"2023-02-23T15:33:28","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.bloomberg.com\/professional\/insights\/markets\/woods-2021-1-million-bitcoin-prediction-supported-by-data-analysis\/"},"modified":"2024-04-24T14:25:05","modified_gmt":"2024-04-24T18:25:05","slug":"woods-2021-1-million-bitcoin-prediction-supported-by-data-analysis","status":"publish","type":[3762],"link":"https:\/\/www.bloomberg.com\/professional\/insights\/markets\/woods-2021-1-million-bitcoin-prediction-supported-by-data-analysis\/","title":{"rendered":"Wood\u2019s 2021 $1 million Bitcoin prediction supported by data analysis"},"content":{"rendered":"<div  class=\"bbg-row-container\">\n    <style>section[data-anchor=row-6a060af38aa53]::before {\n\t\t\t\tbackground-color: #eeeeee;\n\t\t\t}<\/style>\n    <section class=\"bbg-row bg--custom-color  bg--eeeeee text--black bbg-row--full-bg-bleed\" data-anchor='row-6a060af38aa53'>\n        \n        \n        <div\n            class=\"bbg-row--content\"\n                    >\n            \n            <p><div\n    class=\"bbg-column bbg-column--width-2\"\n    style=\"\"\n    >\n    \n<\/div><div\n    class=\"bbg-column bbg-column--width-8 bbg-column--valign-bottom\"\n    style=\"\"\n    >\n    <p>    <ul class=\"bbg-categories_list\">\n                    <li>\n                <a href=\"https:\/\/www.bloomberg.com\/professional\/insights\/category\/markets\/\" rel=\"category tag\">\n                    Markets\n                <\/a>\n            <\/li>\n            <\/ul>\n<div\n    class=\"bbg-spacer\"\n        style=\"height: 24px !important\"\n    >\n<\/div>    <h1 class=\"bbg-metadata bbg-metadata--title\">Wood\u2019s 2021 $1 million Bitcoin prediction supported by data analysis<\/h1>\n<\/p>\n\n<\/div>\n\n\n                    <\/div>\n    <\/section>\n<\/div>\n\n<div  class=\"bbg-row-container\">\n    <section class=\"bbg-row  text--black row-padding--top-compact row-padding--bottom-none bbg-row--full-bg-bleed\" data-anchor='row-6a060af391a1c'>\n        \n        \n        <div\n            class=\"bbg-row--content\"\n                    >\n            \n            <p><div\n    class=\"bbg-column bbg-column--width-2\"\n    style=\"\"\n    >\n    \n<\/div><div\n    class=\"bbg-column bbg-column--width-8\"\n    style=\"\"\n    >\n    <p><div\n    class=\"bbg-spacer\"\n        style=\"height: 40px !important\"\n    >\n<\/div><div\n\tclass=\"bb-wysiwyg byline\"\n\t\t>\n\t<p><strong>Functions for the Market <\/strong><\/p>\n\n<\/div>\n    <p class=\"bbg-metadata bbg-metadata--date\">February 23, 2023<\/p>\n<\/p>\n\n<\/div>\n\n\n                    <\/div>\n    <\/section>\n<\/div>\n\n<div  class=\"bbg-row-container\">\n    <section class=\"bbg-row  text--black row-padding--top-none bbg-row--full-bg-bleed\" data-anchor='row-6a060af39484b'>\n        \n        \n        <div\n            class=\"bbg-row--content\"\n                    >\n            \n            <p><div\n    class=\"bbg-column bbg-column--width-2\"\n    style=\"\"\n    >\n    \n<\/div><div\n    class=\"bbg-column bbg-column--width-8\"\n    style=\"\"\n    >\n    <p><div\n\tclass=\"bb-wysiwyg\"\n\t\t>\n\t<p><i><span style=\"font-weight: 400\">Bloomberg Market Specialist Li Zhao contributed to this article. The original version appeared first on the Bloomberg Terminal. <\/span><\/i><\/p>\n<h2>Background<\/h2>\n<p>Cathie Wood, founder of Ark Investment Management and longtime champion for cryptocurrency, predicted in 2021 that Bitcoin\u2019s value would reach <a href=\"https:\/\/www.bloomberg.com\/news\/videos\/2022-11-22\/wood-bitcoin-will-be-1-million-per-coin-by-2030-video?sref=s4jM8V8F\">$1 million per coin by 2030<\/a>. She reiterated this prediction in the following months, including purchasing 315,000 shares in Grayscale Bitcoin Trust in November 2022, buying a dip.<\/p>\n<p>Wood\u2019s prediction was met with some skepticism given the challenges faced by many large cryptocurrency firms, including the<a href=\"https:\/\/www.bloomberg.com\/news\/articles\/2022-11-11\/ftx-com-goes-bankrupt-in-stunning-reversal-for-crypto-exchange?sref=s4jM8V8F\"> fall of cryptocurrency company FTX<\/a> and the <a href=\"https:\/\/www.bloomberg.com\/news\/articles\/2023-01-17\/ftx-collapse-puts-focus-on-ripple-case-for-who-should-regulate-crypto\">court ruling involving Ripple Labs<\/a> expected in the first half of 2023.<\/p>\n\n<\/div>\n<div class=\"bbg-interstitial\" aria-label=\"interstitial\" tabindex=\"0\">\n\t<style>\n\t\t.bbg-interstitial #card_1.bbg-card_hasCta{\n\t\t\tbackground:rgba(0,0,0,0);\n\t\t\tpadding: 104px;\n\t\t\t\n\t\t\t\n\t\t}\n\t\t.bbg-interstitial #card_1.bbg-card_hasCta .bbg-card__content, .bbg-interstitial #card_1.bbg-card_hasCta .bbg-card__content p{\n\t\t\tcolor:inherit;\n\t\t}\n\t\t@media (max-width: 768px) {\n\t\t\t.bbg-interstitial #card_1.bbg-card_hasCta{\n\t\t\t\tpadding: 80px 32px;\n\t\t\t}\n\t\t}\n\t\t@media (max-width: 480px) {\n\t\t\t.bbg-interstitial #card_1.bbg-card_hasCta{\n\t\t\t\tpadding: 80px 18px;\n\t\t\t}\n\t\t}\n\t<\/style>\n\t<div class=\"wpb_content_element bbg-card  bbg-card-dark bbg-card_hasCta has_interstitial\" id=\"card_1\" data-card_type=\"no_image\">\n  \n  \n  <div class=\"bbg-card__innerwrapper\">\n    <div class=\"bbg-card__content\">\n      \n      \n                      <h3 class=\"bbg-card__title\">Bloomberg Intelligence: Data-driven research<\/h3>\n      \n              <div class=\"bbg-card__wysiwyg bb-wysiwyg\"><p>Learn more<\/p>\n<\/div>\n          <\/div>\n\n          \n<div\n  id=\"cta_6780544084949369889\"\n  class=\"wpb_content_element bbg-cta icon icon-arrow\">\n  <style>\n    \n    \n    \n  <\/style>\n  <div\n    class=\"bbg-cta-link link-holder\"\n    data-links-type=\"cta-links\">\n    <p class=\"bbg-cta-p right\">\n      <a\n        class=\"bbg-cta-link link interstitial_cta\"\n        href=\"https:\/\/www.bloomberg.com\/professional\/products\/bloomberg-terminal\/research\/bloomberg-intelligence\/\"\n        target=\"_blank\"\n        rel=\"\"\n        data-section-name=\"\"\n                role=\"button\"\n        aria-label=\"Learn more\"\n        >\n                <\/a>\n    <\/p>\n  <\/div>\n<\/div>\n\n      <\/div>\n\n  <\/div>\n\n<\/div>\n<div\n\tclass=\"bb-wysiwyg\"\n\t\t>\n\t<h2>The issue<\/h2>\n<p>The decreased confidence in Bitcoin and other cryptocurrencies stems from a public loss of confidence after high-profile incidents of fraud, misinformation and funding issues, among other challenges.<\/p>\n<p>Bitcoin, specifically, <a href=\"https:\/\/www.bloomberg.com\/graphics\/2022-crypto-contagion-from-bitcoin-to-FTX\/#xj4y7vzkg\">plunged more than 60% by the end of 2022<\/a>, leading to a total value loss of $2 trillion. However, some analysts argue that not only was this downturn expected, it also illustrates Bitcoin\u2019s continuing potential.<\/p>\n<p>Bitcoin\u2019s meltdown in 2022 was influenced by the cryptocurrency\u2019s four-year halving cycle that tends to bring up a period of massive drawdowns. The token showed more resilience than others last year as contagion spread across crypto intermediaries.<\/p>\n<p>\u201cSometimes you need to battle-test, you need to go through crises to see the survivors,\u201d Wood <a href=\"https:\/\/www.bloomberg.com\/news\/videos\/2022-11-22\/wood-bitcoin-will-be-1-million-per-coin-by-2030-video\">told Bloomberg Television in November<\/a>.<\/p>\n<p>Wood\u2019s prediction could still bear out if certain chart analysis is correct. For example, the DeMark Combo indicator signals an exhaustion of crypto\u2019s bearish trend. Crypto bulls also note that Bitcoin\u2019s dip is similar to the Nasdaq Composite Index dotcom bubble crash, as both found themselves supported at or above the 0.236 absolute retracement level.<\/p>\n<p>Those trend lines have many crypto bulls hopeful for not only a <a href=\"https:\/\/www.bloomberg.com\/news\/articles\/2023-01-17\/coinbase-marathon-digital-lead-2023-resurgence-in-crypto-stocks\">positive recovery<\/a> but also a higher sustained market value.<\/p>\n<h2>Tracking<\/h2>\n<p>Use Bloomberg\u2019s charting tools to gauge where Bitcoin is headed.<\/p>\n\n<\/div>\n<div id=\"\" class=\"wpb_content_element bbg-single-image align-center\">\n    <figure class=\"bbg-single-image__figure\" style=\"max-width:1024px\">\n                <img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" width=\"800\" height=\"494\" src=\"https:\/\/assets.bbhub.io\/professional\/sites\/10\/currny.gif\" class=\"bbg-single-image__image attachment-large\" alt=\"\" title=\"currny\" srcset=\"https:\/\/assets.bbhub.io\/professional\/sites\/10\/currny.gif 800w, https:\/\/assets.bbhub.io\/professional\/sites\/10\/currny.gif 552w, https:\/\/assets.bbhub.io\/professional\/sites\/10\/currny.gif 768w, https:\/\/assets.bbhub.io\/professional\/sites\/10\/currny.gif 600w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 800px) 100vw, 800px\" \/>\n        \n            <\/figure>\n<\/div>\n\n<div\n\tclass=\"bb-wysiwyg\"\n\t\t>\n\t<p>The 38.2% projection lines (thick vertical red) correspond to Bitcoin\u2019s four-year halving cycles, where the reward accruing to miners for verifying each new block of transactions is cut in half. Previous three halving events happened in November 2012, July 2016 and May 2020. The next one is due in 2024. The 76.4% projection lines correspond to Bitcoin\u2019s three major tops: November 2013, December 2017 and November 2021.<\/p>\n<p>Bitcoin prices tend to hit new highs in post-halving cycles, and its most severe bear markets occurred between the 76.4% and 100% projection lines in 2014, 2018 and 2022, respectively.<\/p>\n<p>The magnitude of Bitcoin\u2019s loss this year is similar to that of the dotcom bubble, and there are signs of potential trend exhaustion.<\/p>\n\n<\/div>\n<div id=\"\" class=\"wpb_content_element bbg-single-image align-center\">\n    <figure class=\"bbg-single-image__figure\" style=\"max-width:1024px\">\n                <img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" width=\"800\" height=\"494\" src=\"https:\/\/assets.bbhub.io\/professional\/sites\/10\/usd.gif\" class=\"bbg-single-image__image attachment-large\" alt=\"\" title=\"usd\" srcset=\"https:\/\/assets.bbhub.io\/professional\/sites\/10\/usd.gif 800w, https:\/\/assets.bbhub.io\/professional\/sites\/10\/usd.gif 552w, https:\/\/assets.bbhub.io\/professional\/sites\/10\/usd.gif 768w, https:\/\/assets.bbhub.io\/professional\/sites\/10\/usd.gif 600w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 800px) 100vw, 800px\" \/>\n        \n            <\/figure>\n<\/div>\n\n<div\n\tclass=\"bb-wysiwyg\"\n\t\t>\n\t<p>The DeMark Combo indicator is designed to anticipate a potential exhaustion or completion of the existing trend, before it actually occurs. Through a multi-phase price comparative process consisting of setup (green) and countdown (purple) indicators, it analyzes price data to provide insight as to the progress of a trend and potential timing and levels for exhaustion. It is designed to identify potential inflection points in markets and remain dormant in times of consolidation.<\/p>\n<p>A purple 13 trend exhaustion signal appeared on the week of Nov. 13, 2022 which suggests the bearish trend since a year ago may have come to an end. Meanwhile, the price has been supported above the 0.236 absolute retracement level. A similar bottom was formed for the Nasdaq Composite Index after the dotcom bubble crash in early 2000s.<\/p>\n<p>The Nasdaq\u2019s three-year long bear market found support at the 0.236 retracement level. Crypto bulls may be hoping for a Bitcoin bounce in a replay of the early 2000s for the Nasdaq.<\/p>\n\n<\/div>\n<div id=\"\" class=\"wpb_content_element bbg-single-image align-center\">\n    <figure class=\"bbg-single-image__figure\" style=\"max-width:1024px\">\n                <img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" width=\"800\" height=\"494\" src=\"https:\/\/assets.bbhub.io\/professional\/sites\/10\/cmp.gif\" class=\"bbg-single-image__image attachment-large\" alt=\"\" title=\"cmp\" srcset=\"https:\/\/assets.bbhub.io\/professional\/sites\/10\/cmp.gif 800w, https:\/\/assets.bbhub.io\/professional\/sites\/10\/cmp.gif 552w, https:\/\/assets.bbhub.io\/professional\/sites\/10\/cmp.gif 768w, https:\/\/assets.bbhub.io\/professional\/sites\/10\/cmp.gif 600w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 800px) 100vw, 800px\" \/>\n        \n            <\/figure>\n<\/div>\n\n<div\n\tclass=\"bb-wysiwyg\"\n\t\t>\n\t<p><em>\u00a0<\/em><em>For more information on this or other functionality on the Bloomberg Professional Service, click here to request a demo with a Bloomberg sales representative. Existing clients can press &lt;HELP HELP&gt; on their Bloomberg keyboard.<\/em><\/p>\n\n<\/div>\n\n<\/div><div\n    class=\"bbg-column bbg-column--width-2\"\n    style=\"\"\n    >\n    \n<\/div>\n\n\n                    <\/div>\n    <\/section>\n<\/div>\n\n<div  class=\"bbg-row-container\">\n    <style>section[data-anchor=row-6a060af3a733c]::before {\n\t\t\t\tbackground-color: #eeeeee;\n\t\t\t}<\/style>\n    <section class=\"bbg-row bg--custom-color  bg--eeeeee text--black bbg-row--full-bg-bleed\" data-anchor='row-6a060af3a733c'>\n        \n        \n        <div\n            class=\"bbg-row--content\"\n                    >\n            \n            <div\n    class=\"bbg-column\"\n    style=\"\"\n    >\n    <div\n\tclass=\"bb-wysiwyg\"\n\t\t>\n\t<h2>Recommended for you<\/h2>\n\n<\/div>\n<div\n    class=\"bbg-spacer\"\n        style=\"height: 24px !important\"\n    >\n<\/div><script>\n    window.feed = window.feed || {};\n    window.feed['6a060af3ab2f8'] = 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