{"id":46214,"date":"2022-05-17T10:02:27","date_gmt":"2022-05-17T14:02:27","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.bloomberg.com\/professional\/insights\/data\/exploring-china-market-dynamics-with-credit-data-analysis\/"},"modified":"2024-07-19T12:22:10","modified_gmt":"2024-07-19T16:22:10","slug":"exploring-china-market-dynamics-with-credit-data-analysis","status":"publish","type":[3762],"link":"https:\/\/www.bloomberg.com\/professional\/insights\/data\/exploring-china-market-dynamics-with-credit-data-analysis\/","title":{"rendered":"Exploring China market dynamics with credit data analysis"},"content":{"rendered":"<div  class=\"bbg-row-container\">\n    <style>section[data-anchor=row-69fcf9a6c7a6a]::before {\n\t\t\t\tbackground-color: #eeeeee;\n\t\t\t}<\/style>\n    <section class=\"bbg-row bg--custom-color  bg--eeeeee text--black bbg-row--full-bg-bleed\" data-anchor='row-69fcf9a6c7a6a'>\n        \n        \n        <div\n            class=\"bbg-row--content\"\n                    >\n            \n            <p><div\n    class=\"bbg-column bbg-column--width-2\"\n    style=\"\"\n    >\n    \n<\/div><div\n    class=\"bbg-column bbg-column--width-8 bbg-column--valign-bottom\"\n    style=\"\"\n    >\n    <p>    <ul class=\"bbg-categories_list\">\n                    <li>\n                <a href=\"https:\/\/www.bloomberg.com\/professional\/insights\/category\/data\/\" rel=\"category tag\">\n                    Data\n                <\/a>\n            <\/li>\n                    <li>\n                <a href=\"https:\/\/www.bloomberg.com\/professional\/insights\/category\/technology\/\" rel=\"category tag\">\n                    Technology\n                <\/a>\n            <\/li>\n                    <li>\n                <a href=\"https:\/\/www.bloomberg.com\/professional\/insights\/category\/trading\/\" rel=\"category tag\">\n                    Trading\n                <\/a>\n            <\/li>\n            <\/ul>\n<div\n    class=\"bbg-spacer\"\n        style=\"height: 24px !important\"\n    >\n<\/div>    <h1 class=\"bbg-metadata bbg-metadata--title\">Exploring China market dynamics with credit data analysis<\/h1>\n<\/p>\n\n<\/div>\n\n\n                    <\/div>\n    <\/section>\n<\/div>\n\n<div  class=\"bbg-row-container\">\n    <section class=\"bbg-row  text--black row-padding--top-compact row-padding--bottom-none bbg-row--full-bg-bleed\" data-anchor='row-69fcf9a6dc7e6'>\n        \n        \n        <div\n            class=\"bbg-row--content\"\n                    >\n            \n            <p><div\n    class=\"bbg-column bbg-column--width-2\"\n    style=\"\"\n    >\n    \n<\/div><div\n    class=\"bbg-column bbg-column--width-8\"\n    style=\"\"\n    >\n    <p><div\n    class=\"bbg-spacer\"\n        style=\"height: 40px !important\"\n    >\n<\/div><div\n\tclass=\"bb-wysiwyg byline\"\n\t\t>\n\t<p><strong>Bloomberg Professional Services  <\/strong><\/p>\n\n<\/div>\n    <p class=\"bbg-metadata bbg-metadata--date\">May 17, 2022<\/p>\n<\/p>\n\n<\/div>\n\n\n                    <\/div>\n    <\/section>\n<\/div>\n\n<div  class=\"bbg-row-container\">\n    <section class=\"bbg-row  text--black row-padding--top-none bbg-row--full-bg-bleed\" data-anchor='row-69fcf9a6dede9'>\n        \n        \n        <div\n            class=\"bbg-row--content\"\n                    >\n            \n            <p><div\n    class=\"bbg-column bbg-column--width-2\"\n    style=\"\"\n    >\n    \n<\/div><div\n    class=\"bbg-column bbg-column--width-8\"\n    style=\"\"\n    >\n    <p><div\n\tclass=\"bb-wysiwyg\"\n\t\t>\n\t<p><i>This analysis is by Fixed Income Data Analyst Kristine Lian. It appeared first on the Bloomberg Terminal.<\/i><\/p>\n<h2>Background<\/h2>\n<p>At the end of 2021, the emergence of Evergrande crisis altered the long-standing operation mode of China\u2019s real estate industry. In the following months, one after another, China developers declared defaults due to onerous debt burdens.<\/p>\n<p>Along with the debt crisis came the shock and distress of the overall China credit market. As of April 2022, about 70% of China&#8217;s high-yield real-estate bonds have become uninvestable for funds with strict mandates, and the dollar-bond default rate hit a record-breaking 4.5%.<\/p>\n\n<\/div>\n<div id=\"\" class=\"wpb_content_element bbg-single-image align-center\">\n    <figure class=\"bbg-single-image__figure\" style=\"max-width:1024px\">\n                <img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" width=\"670\" height=\"445\" src=\"https:\/\/assets.bbhub.io\/image\/v1\/resize?width=auto&amp;type=webp&amp;url=https:\/\/assets.bbhub.io\/professional\/sites\/10\/3-Aprils-Record-Breaking-Default-Rate.png\" class=\"bbg-single-image__image attachment-large\" alt=\"\" title=\"3-Aprils-Record-Breaking-Default-Rate\" srcset=\"https:\/\/assets.bbhub.io\/image\/v1\/resize?width=auto&amp;type=webp&amp;url=https:\/\/assets.bbhub.io\/professional\/sites\/10\/3-Aprils-Record-Breaking-Default-Rate.png 670w, https:\/\/assets.bbhub.io\/image\/v1\/resize?width=auto&amp;type=webp&amp;url=https:\/\/assets.bbhub.io\/professional\/sites\/10\/3-Aprils-Record-Breaking-Default-Rate.png 552w, https:\/\/assets.bbhub.io\/image\/v1\/resize?width=auto&amp;type=webp&amp;url=https:\/\/assets.bbhub.io\/professional\/sites\/10\/3-Aprils-Record-Breaking-Default-Rate.png 600w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 670px) 100vw, 670px\" \/>\n        \n                <figcaption class=\"bbg-single-image__caption\" style=\"text-align: left\">\n                Source: Bloomberg Quant Platform (BQuant), Global Data\n        <\/figcaption>\n            <\/figure>\n<\/div>\n\n<div\n\tclass=\"bb-wysiwyg\"\n\t\t>\n\t<h2>The issue<\/h2>\n<p>With the expectation that the market will progressively recover, China developers are attempting to mitigate the impact of outright defaults through corporate actions such as exchange or consent solicitation.<\/p>\n<p>However, due to restricted liquidity, China developers may seek re-extensions or default even after bond exchanges, as witnessed recently with Zhenro, Yango, and Yuzhou. This could unnerve\u00a0investors, exposing how debt extension without full restructuring or haircuts may fail to address capital structure and liquidity issues.<\/p>\n<p>Inconsistent liquidity disclosure, particularly on restricted cash such as amount held in escrow, is making it even more difficult for investors to make critical decisions. By April 26, 30% of developers had not presented audited 2021 results. Six had changed auditors, and Evergrande, Fantasia, Sunac, Modern Land, Kaisa, and Sinic&#8217;s stock had been suspended from trading for failing to disclose unaudited annual results by the end of March.<\/p>\n\n<\/div>\n<div class=\"bbg-interstitial\" aria-label=\"interstitial\" tabindex=\"0\">\n\t<style>\n\t\t.bbg-interstitial #card_1.bbg-card_hasCta{\n\t\t\tbackground:rgba(0,0,0,0);\n\t\t\tpadding: 104px;\n\t\t\t\n\t\t\t\n\t\t}\n\t\t.bbg-interstitial #card_1.bbg-card_hasCta .bbg-card__content, .bbg-interstitial #card_1.bbg-card_hasCta .bbg-card__content p{\n\t\t\tcolor:inherit;\n\t\t}\n\t\t@media (max-width: 768px) {\n\t\t\t.bbg-interstitial #card_1.bbg-card_hasCta{\n\t\t\t\tpadding: 80px 32px;\n\t\t\t}\n\t\t}\n\t\t@media (max-width: 480px) {\n\t\t\t.bbg-interstitial #card_1.bbg-card_hasCta{\n\t\t\t\tpadding: 80px 18px;\n\t\t\t}\n\t\t}\n\t<\/style>\n\t<div class=\"wpb_content_element bbg-card  bbg-card-dark bbg-card_hasCta has_interstitial\" id=\"card_1\" data-card_type=\"no_image\">\n  \n  \n  <div class=\"bbg-card__innerwrapper\">\n    <div class=\"bbg-card__content\">\n      \n      \n                      <h3 class=\"bbg-card__title\">Subscribe to China Market Insights for comprehensive analysis by our product experts, data specialists and Bloomberg Intelligence analysts.<\/h3>\n      \n              <div class=\"bbg-card__wysiwyg bb-wysiwyg\"><p> Sign up for the newsletter<\/p>\n<\/div>\n          <\/div>\n\n          \n<div\n  id=\"cta_7904827268875155820\"\n  class=\"wpb_content_element bbg-cta icon icon-arrow\">\n  <style>\n    \n    \n    \n  <\/style>\n  <div\n    class=\"bbg-cta-link link-holder\"\n    data-links-type=\"cta-links\">\n    <p class=\"bbg-cta-p right\">\n      <a\n        class=\"bbg-cta-link link interstitial_cta\"\n        href=\"https:\/\/www.bloomberg.com\/professional\/solutions\/invest-in-asia\/\"\n        target=\"_blank\"\n        rel=\"\"\n        data-section-name=\"\"\n                role=\"button\"\n        aria-label=\"Learn more\"\n        >\n                <\/a>\n    <\/p>\n  <\/div>\n<\/div>\n\n      <\/div>\n\n  <\/div>\n\n<\/div>\n<div\n\tclass=\"bb-wysiwyg\"\n\t\t>\n\t<h2>Tracking<\/h2>\n<p>To determine trends for credit-rating agencies upgrading or downgrading borrowers, run RATT&lt;GO&gt; to analyze performance and length of historical ratings-change cycles. Use the drop-down to select China as Region\/Country, set Industry to All, and custom the period. According to Bloomberg-compiled data, the number of Chinese firms downgraded by local agencies peaked in June 2021, followed by a surge in downgrades by international agencies since July, peaking in October.<\/p>\n\n<\/div>\n<div id=\"\" class=\"wpb_content_element bbg-single-image align-center\">\n    <figure class=\"bbg-single-image__figure\" style=\"max-width:1024px\">\n                <img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" width=\"741\" height=\"367\" src=\"https:\/\/assets.bbhub.io\/image\/v1\/resize?width=auto&amp;type=webp&amp;url=https:\/\/assets.bbhub.io\/professional\/sites\/10\/2-Chinese-Issuers-Rating-Change-by-SP1.png\" class=\"bbg-single-image__image attachment-large\" alt=\"\" title=\"2-Chinese-Issuers-Rating-Change-by-SP1\" srcset=\"https:\/\/assets.bbhub.io\/image\/v1\/resize?width=auto&amp;type=webp&amp;url=https:\/\/assets.bbhub.io\/professional\/sites\/10\/2-Chinese-Issuers-Rating-Change-by-SP1.png 741w, https:\/\/assets.bbhub.io\/image\/v1\/resize?width=auto&amp;type=webp&amp;url=https:\/\/assets.bbhub.io\/professional\/sites\/10\/2-Chinese-Issuers-Rating-Change-by-SP1.png 552w, https:\/\/assets.bbhub.io\/image\/v1\/resize?width=auto&amp;type=webp&amp;url=https:\/\/assets.bbhub.io\/professional\/sites\/10\/2-Chinese-Issuers-Rating-Change-by-SP1.png 600w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 741px) 100vw, 741px\" \/>\n        \n                <figcaption class=\"bbg-single-image__caption\" style=\"text-align: left\">\n                Source: Bloomberg RATT GO  \n        <\/figcaption>\n            <\/figure>\n<\/div>\n\n<div\n\tclass=\"bb-wysiwyg\"\n\t\t>\n\t<p>Use TAGG&lt;GO&gt; to see a display of aggregated post-trade volumes for fixed-income securities, to show market direction and liquidity.<\/p>\n\n<\/div>\n<div id=\"\" class=\"wpb_content_element bbg-single-image align-center\">\n    <figure class=\"bbg-single-image__figure\" style=\"max-width:1024px\">\n                <img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" width=\"673\" height=\"397\" src=\"https:\/\/assets.bbhub.io\/image\/v1\/resize?width=auto&amp;type=webp&amp;url=https:\/\/assets.bbhub.io\/professional\/sites\/10\/3-Offshore-Trading-Volume-of-China-Issuers1.png\" class=\"bbg-single-image__image attachment-large\" alt=\"\" title=\"3-Offshore-Trading-Volume-of-China-Issuers1\" srcset=\"https:\/\/assets.bbhub.io\/image\/v1\/resize?width=auto&amp;type=webp&amp;url=https:\/\/assets.bbhub.io\/professional\/sites\/10\/3-Offshore-Trading-Volume-of-China-Issuers1.png 673w, https:\/\/assets.bbhub.io\/image\/v1\/resize?width=auto&amp;type=webp&amp;url=https:\/\/assets.bbhub.io\/professional\/sites\/10\/3-Offshore-Trading-Volume-of-China-Issuers1.png 552w, https:\/\/assets.bbhub.io\/image\/v1\/resize?width=auto&amp;type=webp&amp;url=https:\/\/assets.bbhub.io\/professional\/sites\/10\/3-Offshore-Trading-Volume-of-China-Issuers1.png 100w, https:\/\/assets.bbhub.io\/image\/v1\/resize?width=auto&amp;type=webp&amp;url=https:\/\/assets.bbhub.io\/professional\/sites\/10\/3-Offshore-Trading-Volume-of-China-Issuers1.png 600w, https:\/\/assets.bbhub.io\/image\/v1\/resize?width=auto&amp;type=webp&amp;url=https:\/\/assets.bbhub.io\/professional\/sites\/10\/3-Offshore-Trading-Volume-of-China-Issuers1.png 490w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 673px) 100vw, 673px\" \/>\n        \n                <figcaption class=\"bbg-single-image__caption\" style=\"text-align: left\">\n                Source: Bloomberg TAGG GO; TRACE, MIFID data\n        <\/figcaption>\n            <\/figure>\n<\/div>\n\n<div\n\tclass=\"bb-wysiwyg\"\n\t\t>\n\t<p>Launch full China Market Insights Report under BI BEST &lt;GO&gt; -&gt; Monthly Notes -&gt; Credit<\/p>\n\n<\/div>\n<div id=\"\" class=\"wpb_content_element bbg-single-image align-center\">\n    <figure class=\"bbg-single-image__figure\" style=\"max-width:1024px\">\n                <img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" width=\"800\" height=\"401\" src=\"https:\/\/assets.bbhub.io\/image\/v1\/resize?width=auto&amp;type=webp&amp;url=https:\/\/assets.bbhub.io\/professional\/sites\/10\/last-chart.png\" class=\"bbg-single-image__image attachment-large\" alt=\"\" title=\"last-chart\" srcset=\"https:\/\/assets.bbhub.io\/image\/v1\/resize?width=auto&amp;type=webp&amp;url=https:\/\/assets.bbhub.io\/professional\/sites\/10\/last-chart.png 800w, https:\/\/assets.bbhub.io\/image\/v1\/resize?width=auto&amp;type=webp&amp;url=https:\/\/assets.bbhub.io\/professional\/sites\/10\/last-chart.png 552w, https:\/\/assets.bbhub.io\/image\/v1\/resize?width=auto&amp;type=webp&amp;url=https:\/\/assets.bbhub.io\/professional\/sites\/10\/last-chart.png 768w, https:\/\/assets.bbhub.io\/image\/v1\/resize?width=auto&amp;type=webp&amp;url=https:\/\/assets.bbhub.io\/professional\/sites\/10\/last-chart.png 1536w, https:\/\/assets.bbhub.io\/image\/v1\/resize?width=auto&amp;type=webp&amp;url=https:\/\/assets.bbhub.io\/professional\/sites\/10\/last-chart.png 600w, https:\/\/assets.bbhub.io\/image\/v1\/resize?width=auto&amp;type=webp&amp;url=https:\/\/assets.bbhub.io\/professional\/sites\/10\/last-chart.png 1551w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 800px) 100vw, 800px\" \/>\n        \n            <\/figure>\n<\/div>\n\n<div\n\tclass=\"bb-wysiwyg\"\n\t\t>\n\t<p>Subscribe to the complete <a href=\"https:\/\/www.bloomberg.com\/professional\/subscribe-china-market-insights\/?tactic-page=431272\">China Market insights<\/a> to learn more about China credit market and read the full analysis.<\/p>\n\n<\/div>\n\n<\/div><div\n    class=\"bbg-column bbg-column--width-2\"\n    style=\"\"\n    >\n    \n<\/div>\n\n\n                    <\/div>\n    <\/section>\n<\/div>\n\n<div  class=\"bbg-row-container\">\n    <style>section[data-anchor=row-69fcf9a7066c0]::before {\n\t\t\t\tbackground-color: #eeeeee;\n\t\t\t}<\/style>\n    <section class=\"bbg-row bg--custom-color  bg--eeeeee text--black bbg-row--full-bg-bleed\" data-anchor='row-69fcf9a7066c0'>\n        \n        \n        <div\n            class=\"bbg-row--content\"\n                    >\n            \n            <div\n    class=\"bbg-column\"\n    style=\"\"\n    >\n    <div\n\tclass=\"bb-wysiwyg\"\n\t\t>\n\t<h2>Recommended for you<\/h2>\n\n<\/div>\n<div\n    class=\"bbg-spacer\"\n        style=\"height: 24px !important\"\n    >\n<\/div><script>\n    window.feed = window.feed || {};\n    window.feed['69fcf9a7092d4'] = 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