{"id":46034,"date":"2022-01-07T06:30:47","date_gmt":"2022-01-07T11:30:47","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.bloomberg.com\/professional\/insights\/markets\/treasuries-ugly-start-to-year-exposes-enduring-inflation-angst\/"},"modified":"2024-04-24T15:04:52","modified_gmt":"2024-04-24T19:04:52","slug":"treasuries-ugly-start-to-year-exposes-enduring-inflation-angst","status":"publish","type":[3762],"link":"https:\/\/www.bloomberg.com\/professional\/insights\/markets\/treasuries-ugly-start-to-year-exposes-enduring-inflation-angst\/","title":{"rendered":"Treasuries\u2019 ugly start to year exposes enduring inflation angst"},"content":{"rendered":"<div  class=\"bbg-row-container\">\n    <style>section[data-anchor=row-6a09b353c82cc]::before {\n\t\t\t\tbackground-color: #eeeeee;\n\t\t\t}<\/style>\n    <section class=\"bbg-row bg--custom-color  bg--eeeeee text--black bbg-row--full-bg-bleed\" data-anchor='row-6a09b353c82cc'>\n        \n        \n        <div\n            class=\"bbg-row--content\"\n                    >\n            \n            <p><div\n    class=\"bbg-column bbg-column--width-2\"\n    style=\"\"\n    >\n    \n<\/div><div\n    class=\"bbg-column bbg-column--width-8 bbg-column--valign-bottom\"\n    style=\"\"\n    >\n    <p>    <ul class=\"bbg-categories_list\">\n                    <li>\n                <a href=\"https:\/\/www.bloomberg.com\/professional\/insights\/category\/markets\/\" rel=\"category tag\">\n                    Markets\n                <\/a>\n            <\/li>\n                    <li>\n                <a href=\"https:\/\/www.bloomberg.com\/professional\/insights\/category\/trading\/\" rel=\"category tag\">\n                    Trading\n                <\/a>\n            <\/li>\n            <\/ul>\n<div\n    class=\"bbg-spacer\"\n        style=\"height: 24px !important\"\n    >\n<\/div>    <h1 class=\"bbg-metadata bbg-metadata--title\">Treasuries\u2019 ugly start to year exposes enduring inflation angst<\/h1>\n<\/p>\n\n<\/div>\n\n\n                    <\/div>\n    <\/section>\n<\/div>\n\n<div  class=\"bbg-row-container\">\n    <section class=\"bbg-row  text--black row-padding--top-compact row-padding--bottom-none bbg-row--full-bg-bleed\" data-anchor='row-6a09b353cdd56'>\n        \n        \n        <div\n            class=\"bbg-row--content\"\n                    >\n            \n            <p><div\n    class=\"bbg-column bbg-column--width-2\"\n    style=\"\"\n    >\n    \n<\/div><div\n    class=\"bbg-column bbg-column--width-8\"\n    style=\"\"\n    >\n    <p><div\n    class=\"bbg-spacer\"\n        style=\"height: 40px !important\"\n    >\n<\/div><div\n\tclass=\"bb-wysiwyg byline\"\n\t\t>\n\t<p><strong>Bloomberg News<\/strong><\/p>\n\n<\/div>\n    <p class=\"bbg-metadata bbg-metadata--date\">January 7, 2022<\/p>\n<\/p>\n\n<\/div>\n\n\n                    <\/div>\n    <\/section>\n<\/div>\n\n<div  class=\"bbg-row-container\">\n    <section class=\"bbg-row  text--black row-padding--top-none bbg-row--full-bg-bleed\" data-anchor='row-6a09b353cfcb9'>\n        \n        \n        <div\n            class=\"bbg-row--content\"\n                    >\n            \n            <p><div\n    class=\"bbg-column bbg-column--width-2\"\n    style=\"\"\n    >\n    \n<\/div><div\n    class=\"bbg-column bbg-column--width-8\"\n    style=\"\"\n    >\n    <p><div\n\tclass=\"bb-wysiwyg\"\n\t\t>\n\t<p><i>This article was written by Michael MacKenzie. It appeared first on the Bloomberg Terminal.<\/i><\/p>\n<p>The\u00a0<a href=\"https:\/\/bloom.bg\/3F3hDX4\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\">bond market<\/a>\u00a0has wasted little time pushing Treasury yields sharply higher in the early days of 2022, underscoring concern that elevated inflation will spur more aggressive monetary-policy tightening from the Federal Reserve.<\/p>\n<p>The jump has been led by the 10- and 30-year benchmarks, steepening the yield curve in a sign traders expect economic growth and high inflation won\u2019t be derailed by the record surge in the omicron variant of the coronavirus. That outlook may be underscored by the release of the Federal Open Market Committee\u2019s minutes of its December meeting, when <a href=\"https:\/\/blinks.bloomberg.com\/news\/stories\/R46H1EDWLU6Y\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\">it decided<\/a> to move more quickly to wind down the bond-buying spree ushered in after the onset of the pandemic.<\/p>\n<p>\u201cOmicron may slow economic activity in January, but we are seeing evidence that the variant is milder and that raises the prospect of clearer sailing for the global economy this year,\u201d said\u00a0David Kelly, chief global strategist at JPMorgan Asset Management Inc. in New York. In that scenario, the present low level of Treasury yields means \u201cit doesn\u2019t take much to push them higher.\u201d<i><br \/>\n<\/i><\/p>\n\n<\/div>\n<div id=\"\" class=\"wpb_content_element bbg-single-image align-center\">\n    <figure class=\"bbg-single-image__figure\" style=\"max-width:100%\">\n                <img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" width=\"875\" height=\"493\" src=\"https:\/\/assets.bbhub.io\/image\/v1\/resize?width=auto&amp;type=webp&amp;url=https:\/\/assets.bbhub.io\/professional\/sites\/10\/watch-the-curve.png\" class=\"bbg-single-image__image attachment-full\" alt=\"Treasury yields follow a familiar pattern as the year begins\" title=\"watch-the-curve\" srcset=\"https:\/\/assets.bbhub.io\/image\/v1\/resize?width=auto&amp;type=webp&amp;url=https:\/\/assets.bbhub.io\/professional\/sites\/10\/watch-the-curve.png 875w, https:\/\/assets.bbhub.io\/image\/v1\/resize?width=auto&amp;type=webp&amp;url=https:\/\/assets.bbhub.io\/professional\/sites\/10\/watch-the-curve.png 552w, https:\/\/assets.bbhub.io\/image\/v1\/resize?width=auto&amp;type=webp&amp;url=https:\/\/assets.bbhub.io\/professional\/sites\/10\/watch-the-curve.png 800w, https:\/\/assets.bbhub.io\/image\/v1\/resize?width=auto&amp;type=webp&amp;url=https:\/\/assets.bbhub.io\/professional\/sites\/10\/watch-the-curve.png 768w, https:\/\/assets.bbhub.io\/image\/v1\/resize?width=auto&amp;type=webp&amp;url=https:\/\/assets.bbhub.io\/professional\/sites\/10\/watch-the-curve.png 600w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 875px) 100vw, 875px\" \/>\n        \n            <\/figure>\n<\/div>\n\n<div\n\tclass=\"bb-wysiwyg\"\n\t\t>\n\t<p>The yield on the U.S. 10-year note was up nearly three basis points at 1.68% on Wednesday, after topping that level the previous day for the first time since November. The 30-year bond yield at 2.08% is near its highest level since October. Renewed selling in Treasuries on Wednesday in New York was spurred in part by 807,000 new private-sector jobs during December according to ADP, the most since May. The Bloomberg Treasury index registered a total return of minus 0.99% in the first two days of trading this year, following\u00a0<a href=\"https:\/\/bloom.bg\/3r19Ggq\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\">its first full-year loss<\/a>\u00a0since 2013.<\/p>\n<p>\u201cEven if economic growth is slowed by the Omicron variant, the Fed\u2019s concerns about inflation should be enough to keep tightening on track,\u201d\u00a0Deborah Cunningham, chief investment officer of global liquidity markets at\u00a0Federated Hermes, wrote in a client note Tuesday. \u201cYield curves have already responded by steepening, and we expect that to continue.\u201d<\/p>\n\n<\/div>\n<div class=\"bbg-interstitial\" aria-label=\"interstitial\" tabindex=\"0\">\n\t<style>\n\t\t.bbg-interstitial #card_1.bbg-card_hasCta{\n\t\t\tbackground:rgba(0,0,0,0);\n\t\t\tpadding: 104px;\n\t\t\t\n\t\t\t\n\t\t}\n\t\t.bbg-interstitial #card_1.bbg-card_hasCta .bbg-card__content, .bbg-interstitial #card_1.bbg-card_hasCta .bbg-card__content p{\n\t\t\tcolor:inherit;\n\t\t}\n\t\t@media (max-width: 768px) {\n\t\t\t.bbg-interstitial #card_1.bbg-card_hasCta{\n\t\t\t\tpadding: 80px 32px;\n\t\t\t}\n\t\t}\n\t\t@media (max-width: 480px) {\n\t\t\t.bbg-interstitial #card_1.bbg-card_hasCta{\n\t\t\t\tpadding: 80px 18px;\n\t\t\t}\n\t\t}\n\t<\/style>\n\t<div class=\"wpb_content_element bbg-card  bbg-card-dark bbg-card_hasCta has_interstitial\" id=\"card_1\" data-card_type=\"no_image\">\n  \n  \n  <div class=\"bbg-card__innerwrapper\">\n    <div class=\"bbg-card__content\">\n      \n      \n                      <h3 class=\"bbg-card__title\">Charts of the Week - Short, snackable webinars on market trends and asset classes.<\/h3>\n      \n              <div class=\"bbg-card__wysiwyg bb-wysiwyg\"><p>Watch now<\/p>\n<\/div>\n          <\/div>\n\n          \n<div\n  id=\"cta_5157534498649448824\"\n  class=\"wpb_content_element bbg-cta icon icon-arrow\">\n  <style>\n    \n    \n    \n  <\/style>\n  <div\n    class=\"bbg-cta-link link-holder\"\n    data-links-type=\"cta-links\">\n    <p class=\"bbg-cta-p right\">\n      <a\n        class=\"bbg-cta-link link interstitial_cta\"\n        href=\"https:\/\/www.bloomberg.com\/professional\/insights\/webinars\/charts-of-the-week\/\"\n        target=\"_blank\"\n        rel=\"\"\n        data-section-name=\"\"\n                role=\"button\"\n        aria-label=\"Learn more\"\n        >\n                <\/a>\n    <\/p>\n  <\/div>\n<\/div>\n\n      <\/div>\n\n  <\/div>\n\n<\/div>\n<div\n\tclass=\"bb-wysiwyg\"\n\t\t>\n\t<h2>Corporate issuance<\/h2>\n<p>Investor sentiment has also been damped by a rush among companies to\u00a0<a href=\"https:\/\/bloom.bg\/3JYYMR1\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\">sell new debt<\/a>\u00a0before yields rise further.<\/p>\n<p>\u201cWhile the Fed\u2019s hawkish pivot at its December meeting provides a fundamental reason for higher Treasury yields, we believe increased corporate supply and rate lock hedging amid limited liquidity is driving this early-year surge,\u201d said\u00a0Prashant Newnaha, an Asia-Pacific rates strategist at TD Securities in Singapore.<\/p>\n<p>At present, the bond market anticipates three quarter-point Fed rate increases during 2022, endorsing the trajectory forecast by policy makers last month. But debate is brewing over whether the first move will come in May or as soon as March.<\/p>\n<p>The release of the FOMC minutes is just one signpost for bond investors. It will be followed by the monthly payrolls report on Friday and consumer-price inflation data next week, both of which may help clarify when the tightening cycle will commence.<\/p>\n<p>\u201cLabor-market tightness and labor cost pressures will be a major theme in the run-up to the first Fed tightening,\u201d said\u00a0Lou Crandall, chief economist at Wrightson ICAP LLC. Unless omicron derails the economy, Crandall thinks Fed officials may decide at their late January meeting that \u201casset purchases will fall to zero after the February purchase cycle,\u201d setting the stage for a first rate hike in March.<\/p>\n<p>Given the Fed\u2019s recent focus on taming inflation, the risk for the bond market is that long-dated yields are set to push past last year\u2019s peaks until the scope of the economic rebound, inflationary pressure and the bank\u2019s policy response are clarified.<\/p>\n<p>Although the recent trend of rising long-term inflation expectations abated Tuesday after a factory gauge for December showed a decline in\u00a0<a href=\"https:\/\/bloom.bg\/3t2r07a\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\">prices paid<\/a>\u00a0by manufacturers, and extended on Wednesday, the widely followed relationship between two- and 10-year Treasury yields remains appreciably steeper at around 0.87 percentage points, up from late December\u2019s low of a little over 0.7 percentage points. For much of last year, the yield curve flattened after a surge in 10-year yields peaked at the end of March, with the bond market pricing in a shallow path of rate tightening.<\/p>\n<h2>Higher rates<\/h2>\n<p>\u201cYou only reduce inflationary pressure by slowing aggregate demand and that requires higher long-term rates,\u201d JPMorgan\u2019s Kelly said. \u201cThere will be no impact on curbing inflation if long-term rates are not pushed up. The Fed is quite capable of pushing up long-term rates if it decides to reduce the size of its balance sheet along with higher overnight rates.\u201d<\/p>\n<p>For now, the Fed has spelled out a clear path of concluding its monthly bond buying in March and then assessing matters before it starts to raise overnight rates. December\u2019s FOMC minutes will give investors an opportunity to assess how worried the central bank is about inflation and rising employment costs, as well as why those forces pushed it to embark on a faster pace of tapering and to upgrade its estimated tightening path to six\u00a0rate hikes\u00a0by the end of 2023.<\/p>\n<p>The risk facing the bond market is that the slow and steady path of tightening that defined the past cycle may not ensue this time. That point was made by Fed Chair\u00a0Jerome Powell\u00a0last month, when he highlighted how the economic climate is far more constructive that it had been just as inflation holds well above the central bank\u2019s target of 2%.<\/p>\n<p>\u201cOne of the major takeaways is that the timing between the end of tapering, lifting off from the zero lower bound, and the beginning of a potential passive rundown of the balance sheet does not have to mirror their playbook from the last cycle,\u201d analysts at\u00a0Deutsche Bank\u00a0wrote in a note to clients.<\/p>\n\n<\/div>\n\n<\/div><div\n    class=\"bbg-column bbg-column--width-2\"\n    style=\"\"\n    >\n    \n<\/div>\n\n\n                    <\/div>\n    <\/section>\n<\/div>\n\n<div  class=\"bbg-row-container\">\n    <style>section[data-anchor=row-6a09b353d9234]::before {\n\t\t\t\tbackground-color: #eeeeee;\n\t\t\t}<\/style>\n    <section class=\"bbg-row bg--custom-color  bg--eeeeee text--black bbg-row--full-bg-bleed\" 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Long-term yields near breaching 2021 highs after selloff.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1686,"featured_media":38698,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"template-article.php","format":"standard","meta":{"_yoast_wpseo_primary_category":"453","footnotes":""},"categories":[453,444],"tags":[665,776,574,445],"series":[],"class_list":["post-46034","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-markets","category-trading","tag-665","tag-analyst","tag-news","tag-sales-and-trading","type-article"],"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO plugin v19.11 - https:\/\/yoast.com\/wordpress\/plugins\/seo\/ -->\n<title>Treasuries\u2019 ugly start to year exposes enduring inflation angst | Insights | Bloomberg Professional Services<\/title>\n<meta name=\"description\" content=\"A sign of optimism virus surge won\u2019t deal big economic setback. 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