{"id":130919,"date":"2025-11-12T22:26:25","date_gmt":"2025-11-13T03:26:25","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.bloomberg.com\/professional\/insights\/artificial-intelligence\/robots-enter-last-mile-as-tariffs-labor-costs-rise\/"},"modified":"2025-11-12T22:57:11","modified_gmt":"2025-11-13T03:57:11","slug":"robots-enter-last-mile-as-tariffs-labor-costs-rise","status":"publish","type":[3762],"link":"https:\/\/www.bloomberg.com\/professional\/insights\/artificial-intelligence\/robots-enter-last-mile-as-tariffs-labor-costs-rise\/","title":{"rendered":"Robots enter last mile as tariffs, labor costs rise"},"content":{"rendered":"<div  class=\"bbg-row-container\">\n    <section class=\"bbg-row  text--black row-padding--top-compact row-padding--bottom-none bbg-row--full-bg-bleed\" data-anchor='row-6a0c45d0e43b5'>\n        \n        \n        <div\n            class=\"bbg-row--content\"\n                    >\n            \n            <p><div\n    class=\"bbg-column bbg-column--width-7\"\n    style=\"\"\n    >\n    <p><div\n    class=\"bbg-spacer bbg-spacer--lg\"\n    >\n<\/div><div\n\tclass=\"bb-wysiwyg\"\n\t\t>\n\t<p class=\"small\"><strong><span style=\"font-size: 14px; letter-spacing: 1px; color: #0062dd;\">ARTICLE<\/span><\/strong><\/p>\n\n<\/div>\n<div\n    class=\"bbg-spacer bbg-spacer--sm\"\n    >\n<\/div>    <h1 class=\"bbg-metadata bbg-metadata--title\">Robots enter last mile as tariffs, labor costs rise<\/h1>\n<div\n    class=\"bbg-spacer\"\n        style=\"height: 50px !important\"\n    >\n<\/div>    <ul class=\"bbg-categories_list\">\n                    <li>\n                <a href=\"https:\/\/www.bloomberg.com\/professional\/insights\/category\/artificial-intelligence\/\" rel=\"category tag\">\n                    Artificial Intelligence\n                <\/a>\n            <\/li>\n                    <li>\n                <a href=\"https:\/\/www.bloomberg.com\/professional\/insights\/category\/technology\/\" rel=\"category tag\">\n                    Technology\n                <\/a>\n            <\/li>\n            <\/ul>\n<\/p>\n\n<\/div><div\n    class=\"bbg-column bbg-column--width-5\"\n    style=\"\"\n    >\n    <div id=\"\" class=\"wpb_content_element bbg-single-image align-left\">\n    <figure class=\"bbg-single-image__figure\" style=\"max-width:100%\">\n                <img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" width=\"800\" height=\"533\" src=\"https:\/\/assets.bbhub.io\/image\/v1\/resize?width=auto&amp;type=webp&amp;url=https:\/\/assets.bbhub.io\/professional\/sites\/41\/3445853011.jpg\" class=\"bbg-single-image__image attachment-full\" alt=\"Electric vehicle battery\" title=\"Preparations Ahead Of The 68th IAA Frankfurt Automobile Show\" srcset=\"https:\/\/assets.bbhub.io\/image\/v1\/resize?width=auto&amp;type=webp&amp;url=https:\/\/assets.bbhub.io\/professional\/sites\/41\/3445853011.jpg 800w, https:\/\/assets.bbhub.io\/image\/v1\/resize?width=auto&amp;type=webp&amp;url=https:\/\/assets.bbhub.io\/professional\/sites\/41\/3445853011.jpg 552w, https:\/\/assets.bbhub.io\/image\/v1\/resize?width=auto&amp;type=webp&amp;url=https:\/\/assets.bbhub.io\/professional\/sites\/41\/3445853011.jpg 768w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 800px) 100vw, 800px\" \/>\n        \n            <\/figure>\n<\/div>\n\n\n\n<\/div>\n\n\n                    <\/div>\n    <\/section>\n<\/div>\n\n<div  class=\"bbg-row-container\">\n    <section class=\"bbg-row  text--black row-padding--top-none row-padding--bottom-none bbg-row--full-bg-bleed\" data-anchor='row-6a0c45d0efdbe'>\n        \n        \n        <div\n            class=\"bbg-row--content\"\n                    >\n            \n            <p><div\n    class=\"bbg-column bbg-column--width-2\"\n    style=\"\"\n    >\n    \n<\/div><div\n    class=\"bbg-column bbg-column--width-6 bbg-column--m-width-6\"\n    style=\"\"\n    >\n    <p>    <p class=\"bbg-metadata bbg-metadata--date\">November 12, 2025<\/p>\n<div\n\tclass=\"bb-wysiwyg\"\n\t\t>\n\t<p><strong>Bloomberg Intelligence<\/strong><\/p>\n\n<\/div>\n\n<\/div><div\n    class=\"bbg-column bbg-column--width-2 bbg-column--valign-middle bbg-column--m-width-2 bbg-column--s-padding-right-2\"\n    style=\"\"\n    >\n    <div class=\"bb-tts\"\n\tdata-selector=\"main\"\n\tdata-label=\"Speak this page\"\n\tdata-custom-play=\"Play\"\n\tdata-custom-pause=\"Pause\"\n\tdata-custom-stop=\"Stop\"\n\tdata-overlay=\"false\"\n\tdata-invert=\"false\"\n\tdata-no-time=\"false\"\n\tdata-no-button-text=\"false\"\n\tdata-one-button=\"true\"\n\tdata-one-style=\"true\"\n\tdata-hide-stop=\"true\"\n\tdata-voice=\"Gordon\"\n\tdata-pitch=\"1\"\n\tdata-speed=\"1\"\n\tdata-align=\"flex-start\"\n>\n<\/div>\n\n\n<\/div><div\n    class=\"bbg-column bbg-column--width-2\"\n    style=\"\"\n    >\n    \n<\/div>\n\n\n                    <\/div>\n    <\/section>\n<\/div>\n\n<div  class=\"bbg-row-container\">\n    <section class=\"bbg-row  text--black row-padding--top-compact row-padding--bottom-compact bbg-row--full-bg-bleed\" data-anchor='row-6a0c45d0f28bf'>\n        \n        \n        <div\n            class=\"bbg-row--content\"\n                    >\n            \n            <p><div\n    class=\"bbg-column bbg-column--width-2\"\n    style=\"\"\n    >\n    \n<\/div><div\n    class=\"bbg-column bbg-column--width-8\"\n    style=\"\"\n    >\n    <p>[vc_row_inner][vc_column_inner width=&#8221;4\/12&#8243;]<div\n\tclass=\"bb-wysiwyg\"\n\t\t>\n\t<p style=\"color: #ff9e24 !important; font-size: 64px; text-align: center; font-weight: 600;\">8 Hours<\/p>\n\n<\/div>\n<div\n\tclass=\"bb-wysiwyg\"\n\t\t>\n\t<p class=\"small\" style=\"text-align: center;\">Of battery life, double today&#8217;s, needed to make humanoids viable<\/p>\n\n<\/div>\n[\/vc_column_inner][vc_column_inner width=&#8221;4\/12&#8243;]<div\n\tclass=\"bb-wysiwyg\"\n\t\t>\n\t<p style=\"color: #ff9e24!important; font-size: 64px; text-align: center; font-weight: 600;\">14%<\/p>\n\n<\/div>\n<div\n\tclass=\"bb-wysiwyg\"\n\t\t>\n\t<p class=\"small\" style=\"text-align: center;\">Projected share of humanoids in automotive industrial-robot unit sales by 2035<\/p>\n\n<\/div>\n[\/vc_column_inner][vc_column_inner width=&#8221;4\/12&#8243;]<div\n\tclass=\"bb-wysiwyg\"\n\t\t>\n\t<p style=\"color: #ff9e24!important; font-size: 64px; text-align: center; font-weight: 600;\">90%<\/p>\n\n<\/div>\n<div\n\tclass=\"bb-wysiwyg\"\n\t\t>\n\t<p class=\"small\" style=\"text-align: center;\">Share of jobs still done by humans and traditional robots in our scenario<\/p>\n\n<\/div>\n[\/vc_column_inner][\/vc_row_inner]<div\n    class=\"bbg-spacer bbg-spacer--md\"\n    >\n<\/div><div\n\tclass=\"bb-wysiwyg\"\n\t\t>\n\t<p>Global auto manufacturing is pressured by tariffs, reshoring and higher labor costs, with skill shortages pushing factories to find new efficiencies. Industrial robots already dominate welding, stamping and painting, but the &#8220;last mile&#8221; of vehicle assembly such as installing seats and dashboards and fitting wiring harnesses remains largely manual. Humanoid robots could address this gap, though substantial technical and economic hurdles persist.<\/p>\n<p>If they prove safe operating in areas designed for humans, the auto-assembly market for humanoids could grow at a 38% compound annual rate to reach $5 billion by 2035, with penetration around 14% of industrial-robot units sold to the sector, contingent on efficiency approaching human benchmarks and meaningful cost declines. Early adoption will be limited to low-complexity material handling, broader use needs longer runtimes and better manipulation.<\/p>\n<ul>\n<li><strong>Tesla&#8217;s New Model<\/strong>: Tesla is piloting its Optimus humanoids within its &#8220;unboxed&#8221; modular system, which could become the first meaningful test of humanoids in auto manufacturing. Standardized modules may simplify tasks for robots, though other automakers remain cautious about quality and synchronization risks.<\/li>\n<li><strong>Economics and Early Use Cases<\/strong>: Payback periods for humanoids are currently about nine years but could shrink to just over a year by 2035 if hardware costs fall, runtimes extend to full shifts and efficiency approaches human levels. The earliest cost savings are likely in material transport, where humanoids could cut final-assembly labor costs by about 4%.<\/li>\n<li><strong>Scaling and Supply Chain<\/strong>: Companies such as Figure Al and several Chinese developers are expanding production capacity, while Hyundai and Ford showcase different integration routes in auto plants. Progress on scaling will determine how quickly humanoids shift from pilots to mainstream use.<\/li>\n<li><strong>Different Deployment Routes<\/strong>: Automakers&#8217; divergent strategies &#8211; Hyundai with new plants and Ford moving away from legacy lines &#8212; highlight multiple pathways to embed humanoids, underlining that commercialization may not follow a single model<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p>Humanoid robotics has become a growing equity theme with early commercial progress weighing against cyclical weakness in core automation markets. Tesla&#8217;s stock remains supported by EV profitability while its humanoid ambitions add speculative upside. Japanese suppliers like Harmonic Drive, with 76% of sales from reduction gears, trade at 85x forward P\/E, a premium to broader industrial peers despite order softness. Valuations remain elevated, with investors balancing early humanoid commercialization milestones against execution risk and slower recovery in legacy automation.<\/p>\n\n<\/div>\n\n<\/div>\n\n\n                    <\/div>\n    <\/section>\n<\/div>\n\n<div  class=\"bbg-row-container\">\n    <style>section[data-anchor=row-6a0c45d10157e]::before {\n\t\t\t\tbackground-color: #f4f4f9;\n\t\t\t}<\/style>\n    <section class=\"bbg-row bg--custom-color  bg--f4f4f9 text--black bbg-row--full-bg-bleed\" data-anchor='row-6a0c45d10157e'>\n        \n        \n        <div\n            class=\"bbg-row--content\"\n                    >\n            \n            <p><div\n    class=\"bbg-column bbg-column--width-8\"\n    style=\"\"\n    >\n    <div\n\tclass=\"bb-wysiwyg\"\n\t\t>\n\t<h3>Related Content<\/h3>\n\n<\/div>\n\n\n<\/div><div\n    class=\"bbg-column bbg-column--width-4 bbg-column--halign-right\"\n    style=\"\"\n    >\n    \n<div\n  id=\"cta_4257945571882908511\"\n  class=\"wpb_content_element 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