{"id":128434,"date":"2025-10-20T21:14:19","date_gmt":"2025-10-21T01:14:19","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.bloomberg.com\/professional\/insights\/commodities\/record-oil-glut-incoming-key-agencies-update-october-2025\/"},"modified":"2025-10-23T01:38:19","modified_gmt":"2025-10-23T05:38:19","slug":"record-oil-glut-incoming-key-agencies-update-october-2025","status":"publish","type":[3762],"link":"https:\/\/www.bloomberg.com\/professional\/insights\/commodities\/record-oil-glut-incoming-key-agencies-update-october-2025\/","title":{"rendered":"Record oil glut incoming: Key agencies update October 2025"},"content":{"rendered":"<div  class=\"bbg-row-container\">\n    <section class=\"bbg-row  text--black row-padding--top-compact row-padding--bottom-none bbg-row--full-bg-bleed\" data-anchor='row-6a09a519014d9'>\n        \n        \n        <div\n            class=\"bbg-row--content\"\n                    >\n            \n            <p><div\n    class=\"bbg-column bbg-column--width-7\"\n    style=\"\"\n    >\n    <p><div\n    class=\"bbg-spacer bbg-spacer--lg\"\n    >\n<\/div><div\n\tclass=\"bb-wysiwyg\"\n\t\t>\n\t<p class=\"small\"><strong><span style=\"font-size: 14px; letter-spacing: 1px; color: #0062dd;\">ARTICLE<\/span><\/strong><\/p>\n\n<\/div>\n<div\n    class=\"bbg-spacer bbg-spacer--sm\"\n    >\n<\/div>    <h1 class=\"bbg-metadata bbg-metadata--title\">Record oil glut incoming: Key agencies update October 2025<\/h1>\n<div\n    class=\"bbg-spacer\"\n        style=\"height: 50px !important\"\n    >\n<\/div>    <ul class=\"bbg-categories_list\">\n                    <li>\n                <a href=\"https:\/\/www.bloomberg.com\/professional\/insights\/category\/commodities\/\" rel=\"category tag\">\n                    Commodities\n                <\/a>\n            <\/li>\n                    <li>\n                <a href=\"https:\/\/www.bloomberg.com\/professional\/insights\/category\/data\/\" rel=\"category tag\">\n                    Data\n                <\/a>\n            <\/li>\n                    <li>\n                <a href=\"https:\/\/www.bloomberg.com\/professional\/insights\/category\/markets\/\" rel=\"category tag\">\n                    Markets\n                <\/a>\n            <\/li>\n            <\/ul>\n<\/p>\n\n<\/div><div\n    class=\"bbg-column bbg-column--width-5\"\n    style=\"\"\n    >\n    <div id=\"\" class=\"wpb_content_element bbg-single-image align-left\">\n    <figure class=\"bbg-single-image__figure\" style=\"max-width:100%\">\n                <img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" width=\"800\" height=\"533\" src=\"https:\/\/assets.bbhub.io\/image\/v1\/resize?width=auto&amp;type=webp&amp;url=https:\/\/assets.bbhub.io\/professional\/sites\/10\/364961913.jpg\" class=\"bbg-single-image__image attachment-full\" alt=\"Oil pumping jack\" title=\"Oil Pumping Jack\" srcset=\"https:\/\/assets.bbhub.io\/image\/v1\/resize?width=auto&amp;type=webp&amp;url=https:\/\/assets.bbhub.io\/professional\/sites\/10\/364961913.jpg 800w, https:\/\/assets.bbhub.io\/image\/v1\/resize?width=auto&amp;type=webp&amp;url=https:\/\/assets.bbhub.io\/professional\/sites\/10\/364961913.jpg 552w, https:\/\/assets.bbhub.io\/image\/v1\/resize?width=auto&amp;type=webp&amp;url=https:\/\/assets.bbhub.io\/professional\/sites\/10\/364961913.jpg 768w, https:\/\/assets.bbhub.io\/image\/v1\/resize?width=auto&amp;type=webp&amp;url=https:\/\/assets.bbhub.io\/professional\/sites\/10\/364961913.jpg 600w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 800px) 100vw, 800px\" \/>\n        \n            <\/figure>\n<\/div>\n\n\n\n<\/div>\n\n\n                    <\/div>\n    <\/section>\n<\/div>\n\n<div  class=\"bbg-row-container\">\n    <section class=\"bbg-row  text--black row-padding--top-none row-padding--bottom-none bbg-row--full-bg-bleed\" data-anchor='row-6a09a5190c147'>\n        \n        \n        <div\n            class=\"bbg-row--content\"\n                    >\n            \n            <p><div\n    class=\"bbg-column bbg-column--width-2\"\n    style=\"\"\n    >\n    \n<\/div><div\n    class=\"bbg-column bbg-column--width-6 bbg-column--m-width-6\"\n    style=\"\"\n    >\n    <p>    <p class=\"bbg-metadata bbg-metadata--date\">October 20, 2025<\/p>\n<div\n\tclass=\"bb-wysiwyg\"\n\t\t>\n\t<p><strong>BloombergNEF<\/strong><\/p>\n\n<\/div>\n\n<\/div><div\n    class=\"bbg-column bbg-column--width-2 bbg-column--valign-middle bbg-column--m-width-2 bbg-column--s-padding-right-2\"\n    style=\"\"\n    >\n    <div class=\"bb-tts\"\n\tdata-selector=\"main\"\n\tdata-label=\"Speak this page\"\n\tdata-custom-play=\"Play\"\n\tdata-custom-pause=\"Pause\"\n\tdata-custom-stop=\"Stop\"\n\tdata-overlay=\"false\"\n\tdata-invert=\"false\"\n\tdata-no-time=\"false\"\n\tdata-no-button-text=\"false\"\n\tdata-one-button=\"true\"\n\tdata-one-style=\"true\"\n\tdata-hide-stop=\"true\"\n\tdata-voice=\"Gordon\"\n\tdata-pitch=\"1\"\n\tdata-speed=\"1\"\n\tdata-align=\"flex-start\"\n>\n<\/div>\n\n\n<\/div><div\n    class=\"bbg-column bbg-column--width-2\"\n    style=\"\"\n    >\n    \n<\/div>\n\n\n                    <\/div>\n    <\/section>\n<\/div>\n\n<div  class=\"bbg-row-container\">\n    <section class=\"bbg-row  text--black row-padding--top-compact row-padding--bottom-compact bbg-row--full-bg-bleed\" data-anchor='row-6a09a5190ecc2'>\n        \n        \n        <div\n            class=\"bbg-row--content\"\n                    >\n            \n            <p><div\n    class=\"bbg-column bbg-column--width-2\"\n    style=\"\"\n    >\n    \n<\/div><div\n    class=\"bbg-column bbg-column--width-8\"\n    style=\"\"\n    >\n    <p><div\n\tclass=\"bb-wysiwyg\"\n\t\t>\n\t<p><i><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">This article was written by Victoria Xu, BloombergNEF analyst. It appeared first on the Bloomberg Terminal.<\/span><\/i><\/p>\n<p>OPEC+ approved another output hike of 137,000 barrels per day (b\/d) for November, extending its unwind despite an already oversupplied market. The Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC), International Energy Agency (IEA), US Energy Information Administration (EIA) and BloombergNEF (BNEF) publish monthly short-term outlooks tracking how global balances are evolving.<\/p>\n<h2>By the Numbers<\/h2>\n\n<\/div>\n<div\n\tclass=\"bb-wysiwyg\"\n\t\t>\n\t<table class=\"article-table\">\n<thead>\n<tr>\n<th>+2.3m b\/d<\/th>\n<th>+1.2m b\/d<\/th>\n<th>+2.1m to +4m b\/d<\/th>\n<\/tr>\n<\/thead>\n<tbody>\n<tr>\n<td>IEA\u2019s global oil balance estimate for 2025<\/td>\n<td>BNEF\u2019s global oil balance estimate for 2025<\/td>\n<td>Range of global oil balance estimates by agencies for 2026<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<\/tbody>\n<\/table>\n\n<\/div>\n<div id=\"\" class=\"wpb_content_element bbg-single-image align-center\">\n    <figure class=\"bbg-single-image__figure\" style=\"max-width:100%\">\n                <img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" width=\"878\" height=\"577\" src=\"https:\/\/assets.bbhub.io\/image\/v1\/resize?width=auto&amp;type=webp&amp;url=https:\/\/assets.bbhub.io\/professional\/sites\/41\/evolution-of-liquids-balance-estimates.png\" class=\"bbg-single-image__image attachment-full\" alt=\"\" title=\"evolution-of-liquids-balance-estimates\" srcset=\"https:\/\/assets.bbhub.io\/image\/v1\/resize?width=auto&amp;type=webp&amp;url=https:\/\/assets.bbhub.io\/professional\/sites\/41\/evolution-of-liquids-balance-estimates.png 878w, https:\/\/assets.bbhub.io\/image\/v1\/resize?width=auto&amp;type=webp&amp;url=https:\/\/assets.bbhub.io\/professional\/sites\/41\/evolution-of-liquids-balance-estimates.png 552w, https:\/\/assets.bbhub.io\/image\/v1\/resize?width=auto&amp;type=webp&amp;url=https:\/\/assets.bbhub.io\/professional\/sites\/41\/evolution-of-liquids-balance-estimates.png 800w, https:\/\/assets.bbhub.io\/image\/v1\/resize?width=auto&amp;type=webp&amp;url=https:\/\/assets.bbhub.io\/professional\/sites\/41\/evolution-of-liquids-balance-estimates.png 768w, https:\/\/assets.bbhub.io\/image\/v1\/resize?width=auto&amp;type=webp&amp;url=https:\/\/assets.bbhub.io\/professional\/sites\/41\/evolution-of-liquids-balance-estimates.png 164w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 878px) 100vw, 878px\" \/>\n        \n            <\/figure>\n<\/div>\n\n<div\n\tclass=\"bb-wysiwyg\"\n\t\t>\n\t<ul>\n<li>Assumptions on OPEC+ supply used by agencies: IEA assumes OPEC+ production targets remain unchanged from November. US EIA\u2019s forecast did not include the OPEC+ output decision for November, and it did not specify its assumption for future OPEC+ production targets. However, the agency expects that some members\u2019 output will reach practical limits while others will aim to prevent inventory builds. OPEC does not directly publish supply forecasts for OPEC+ countries. BNEF derives OPEC balances using imputed OPEC+ crude supply data from the US EIA. BNEF assumes OPEC+ production targets increase by about 137,000 b\/d (excluding compensatory cuts) every month until all voluntary cuts are unwound by September 2026.<\/li>\n<li>For 2025, the IEA trimmed global oil demand by 0.1m b\/d to 103.8m b\/d and lifted its supply forecast from 105.8m b\/d to 106.1m b\/d. The agency now expects an annual supply growth of 2.96m b\/d, up from 2.7m b\/d, as OPEC+ continues to add barrels alongside steady non-OPEC+ production growth. That leaves the surplus widening to 2.3m b\/d from 1.9m b\/d.<\/li>\n<li>The US EIA raised its 2025 global demand forecast by 0.2m b\/d to 104m b\/d. It also revised its supply projection up by 0.3m b\/d to 105.9m b\/d, mainly from stronger non-OPEC+ output led by the US, Brazil, Guyana and Canada. The surplus widens to 1.9 m b\/d from 1.7m b\/d.<\/li>\n<li>OPEC kept its 2025 demand outlook unchanged at 105.1m b\/d.<\/li>\n<li>BNEF\u2019s 2025 demand forecast is largely unchanged at 104.3m b\/d and supply at 105.5m b\/d, nudging the implied surplus to 1.16 mb\/d from 1.14 mb\/d.<\/li>\n<li>For 2026, IEA has cut its 2026 demand outlook by 0.1m b\/d to 104.5m b\/d. It significantly raised its supply forecast by 0.6m b\/d to 105.5m b\/d, marking a fourth consecutive monthly upgrade, and now expects supply to grow 2.4m b\/d year-on-year. The agency projected a record supply glut of 4m b\/d, 670,000 b\/d higher than anticipated in September.<\/li>\n<li>The US EIA left 2026 demand steady at 105.1m b\/d and saw its supply forecast climb by 0.5m b\/d to 107.2m b\/d, loosening the projected surplus to 2.1m b\/d from 1.6m b\/d.<\/li>\n<li>OPEC left its 2026 demand forecast steady at 106.5m b\/d, the most bullish view among agencies.<\/li>\n<li>BNEF cut its 2026 demand forecast by 0.2m b\/d to 105.0m b\/d and lowered its supply forecast by 0.2m b\/d to 108.3m b\/d, keeping the surplus steady at 3.3m b\/d.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n<\/div>\n\n<\/div>\n\n\n                    <\/div>\n    <\/section>\n<\/div>\n\n<div  class=\"bbg-row-container\">\n    <section class=\"bbg-row  text--black row-padding--top-none row-padding--bottom-none bbg-row--margin-top-compact bbg-row--margin-bottom-compact bbg-row--full-bg-bleed\" data-anchor='row-6a09a51913565'>\n        \n        \n        <div\n            class=\"bbg-row--content\"\n                    >\n            \n            <div\n    class=\"bbg-column\"\n    style=\"\"\n    >\n    <div class=\"bbg-interstitial\" aria-label=\"interstitial\" tabindex=\"0\">\n\t<style>\n\t\t.bbg-interstitial #card_1.bbg-card_hasCta{\n\t\t\tbackground: url(https:\/\/assets.bbhub.io\/image\/v1\/resize?width=auto&amp;type=webp&amp;url=https:\/\/assets.bbhub.io\/professional\/sites\/41\/Interstitial_bg.png);\n\t\t\t\tbackground-repeat: no-repeat;\n\t\t\t\tbackground-position: center center;\n\t\t\t\tbackground-size: cover;\n\t\t\tpadding: 104px;\n\t\t\t\n\t\t\t\n\t\t}\n\t\t.bbg-interstitial #card_1.bbg-card_hasCta .bbg-card__content, .bbg-interstitial #card_1.bbg-card_hasCta .bbg-card__content p{\n\t\t\tcolor:white;\n\t\t}\n\t\t@media (max-width: 768px) {\n\t\t\t.bbg-interstitial #card_1.bbg-card_hasCta{\n\t\t\t\tpadding: 80px 32px;\n\t\t\t}\n\t\t}\n\t\t@media (max-width: 480px) {\n\t\t\t.bbg-interstitial #card_1.bbg-card_hasCta{\n\t\t\t\tpadding: 80px 18px;\n\t\t\t}\n\t\t}\n\t<\/style>\n\t<div class=\"wpb_content_element bbg-card  bbg-card-dark bbg-card_hasCta has_interstitial\" id=\"card_1\" data-card_type=\"no_image\">\n  \n  \n  <div class=\"bbg-card__innerwrapper\">\n    <div class=\"bbg-card__content\">\n      \n      \n                      <h3 class=\"bbg-card__title\">Unlock powerful end-to-end support for your commodities workflow<\/h3>\n      \n              <div class=\"bbg-card__wysiwyg bb-wysiwyg\"><p>Connect with us today<\/p>\n<\/div>\n          <\/div>\n\n          \n<div\n  id=\"cta_1605562557113286594\"\n  class=\"wpb_content_element bbg-cta icon icon-arrow\">\n  <style>\n    \n    \n    \n  <\/style>\n  <div\n    class=\"bbg-cta-link link-holder\"\n    data-links-type=\"cta-links\">\n    <p class=\"bbg-cta-p right\">\n      <a\n        class=\"bbg-cta-link link interstitial_cta\"\n        href=\"https:\/\/www.bloomberg.com\/professional\/solutions\/corporations\/commodities\/#contact-a-specialist\"\n        target=\"\"\n        rel=\"\"\n        data-section-name=\"\"\n                role=\"button\"\n        aria-label=\"Learn more\"\n        >\n                <\/a>\n    <\/p>\n  <\/div>\n<\/div>\n\n      <\/div>\n\n  <\/div>\n\n<\/div>\n\n\n<\/div>\n\n\n                    <\/div>\n    <\/section>\n<\/div>\n\n<div  class=\"bbg-row-container\">\n    <section class=\"bbg-row  text--black row-padding--top-none bbg-row--full-bg-bleed\" data-anchor='row-6a09a51918b54'>\n        \n        \n        <div\n            class=\"bbg-row--content\"\n                    >\n            \n            <p><div\n    class=\"bbg-column bbg-column--width-2\"\n    style=\"\"\n    >\n    \n<\/div><div\n    class=\"bbg-column bbg-column--width-8\"\n    style=\"\"\n    >\n    <div class=\"bbg-accordion transparent\">\n\t<input type=\"checkbox\"  id=\"bbg-accordion-toggle-6a09a5191a109\">\n\t<div class=\"bbg-accordion-parent\" data-accordion-toggle aria-expanded=\"false\">\n\t\t<label class=\"bbg-accordion-label\" for=\"bbg-accordion-toggle-6a09a5191a109\">\n\t\t\t\t<h5 class=\"bbg-accordion-title\" data-label=\"Disclaimer\">\n\t\tDisclaimer\n\t<\/h5>\n\n\t\t\t\t\t<\/label>\n\t<\/div>\n\t<div class=\"bbg-accordion-content\">\n\t\t<div class=\"bb-wysiwyg\">\n\t<p style=\"font-size: 16px !important; line-height: 24px;\">The data included in these materials are for illustrative purposes only. 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