{"id":125873,"date":"2025-09-11T15:06:17","date_gmt":"2025-09-11T19:06:17","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.bloomberg.com\/professional\/insights\/regional-analysis\/saudi-arabia-mbs-are-far-from-ending-their-reliance-on-oil\/"},"modified":"2025-09-11T15:06:17","modified_gmt":"2025-09-11T19:06:17","slug":"saudi-arabia-mbs-are-far-from-ending-their-reliance-on-oil","status":"publish","type":[3762],"link":"https:\/\/www.bloomberg.com\/professional\/insights\/regional-analysis\/saudi-arabia-mbs-are-far-from-ending-their-reliance-on-oil\/","title":{"rendered":"Saudi Arabia, MBS are far from ending their reliance on oil"},"content":{"rendered":"<div  class=\"bbg-row-container\">\n    <section class=\"bbg-row  text--black row-padding--top-compact row-padding--bottom-none bbg-row--full-bg-bleed\" data-anchor='row-6a09249f71822'>\n        \n        \n        <div\n            class=\"bbg-row--content\"\n                    >\n            \n            <p><div\n    class=\"bbg-column bbg-column--width-7\"\n    style=\"\"\n    >\n    <p><div\n    class=\"bbg-spacer bbg-spacer--lg\"\n    >\n<\/div><div\n\tclass=\"bb-wysiwyg\"\n\t\t>\n\t<p class=\"small\"><strong><span style=\"font-size: 14px; letter-spacing: 1px; color: #0062dd;\">ARTICLE<\/span><\/strong><\/p>\n\n<\/div>\n<div\n    class=\"bbg-spacer bbg-spacer--sm\"\n    >\n<\/div>    <h1 class=\"bbg-metadata bbg-metadata--title\">Saudi Arabia, MBS are far from ending their reliance on oil<\/h1>\n<div\n    class=\"bbg-spacer\"\n        style=\"height: 50px !important\"\n    >\n<\/div>    <ul class=\"bbg-categories_list\">\n                    <li>\n                <a href=\"https:\/\/www.bloomberg.com\/professional\/insights\/category\/commodities\/\" rel=\"category tag\">\n                    Commodities\n                <\/a>\n            <\/li>\n                    <li>\n                <a href=\"https:\/\/www.bloomberg.com\/professional\/insights\/category\/markets\/\" rel=\"category tag\">\n                    Markets\n                <\/a>\n            <\/li>\n                    <li>\n                <a href=\"https:\/\/www.bloomberg.com\/professional\/insights\/category\/regional-analysis\/\" rel=\"category tag\">\n                    Regional Analysis\n                <\/a>\n            <\/li>\n            <\/ul>\n<\/p>\n\n<\/div><div\n    class=\"bbg-column bbg-column--width-5\"\n    style=\"\"\n    >\n    <div id=\"\" class=\"wpb_content_element bbg-single-image align-left\">\n    <figure class=\"bbg-single-image__figure\" style=\"max-width:100%\">\n                <img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" width=\"4000\" height=\"2583\" src=\"https:\/\/assets.bbhub.io\/image\/v1\/resize?width=auto&amp;type=webp&amp;url=https:\/\/assets.bbhub.io\/professional\/sites\/41\/312583519-1.jpg\" class=\"bbg-single-image__image attachment-full\" alt=\"A flame burns from a chimney at a phosphate processing plant in Saudi Arabia\" title=\"312583519-1\" srcset=\"https:\/\/assets.bbhub.io\/image\/v1\/resize?width=auto&amp;type=webp&amp;url=https:\/\/assets.bbhub.io\/professional\/sites\/41\/312583519-1.jpg 4000w, https:\/\/assets.bbhub.io\/image\/v1\/resize?width=auto&amp;type=webp&amp;url=https:\/\/assets.bbhub.io\/professional\/sites\/41\/312583519-1.jpg 552w, https:\/\/assets.bbhub.io\/image\/v1\/resize?width=auto&amp;type=webp&amp;url=https:\/\/assets.bbhub.io\/professional\/sites\/41\/312583519-1.jpg 800w, https:\/\/assets.bbhub.io\/image\/v1\/resize?width=auto&amp;type=webp&amp;url=https:\/\/assets.bbhub.io\/professional\/sites\/41\/312583519-1.jpg 768w, https:\/\/assets.bbhub.io\/image\/v1\/resize?width=auto&amp;type=webp&amp;url=https:\/\/assets.bbhub.io\/professional\/sites\/41\/312583519-1.jpg 1536w, https:\/\/assets.bbhub.io\/image\/v1\/resize?width=auto&amp;type=webp&amp;url=https:\/\/assets.bbhub.io\/professional\/sites\/41\/312583519-1.jpg 2048w, https:\/\/assets.bbhub.io\/image\/v1\/resize?width=auto&amp;type=webp&amp;url=https:\/\/assets.bbhub.io\/professional\/sites\/41\/312583519-1.jpg 167w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 4000px) 100vw, 4000px\" \/>\n        \n            <\/figure>\n<\/div>\n\n\n\n<\/div>\n\n\n                    <\/div>\n    <\/section>\n<\/div>\n\n<div  class=\"bbg-row-container\">\n    <section class=\"bbg-row  text--black row-padding--top-none row-padding--bottom-none bbg-row--full-bg-bleed\" data-anchor='row-6a09249f7d2ed'>\n        \n        \n        <div\n            class=\"bbg-row--content\"\n                    >\n            \n            <p><div\n    class=\"bbg-column bbg-column--width-2\"\n    style=\"\"\n    >\n    \n<\/div><div\n    class=\"bbg-column bbg-column--width-6 bbg-column--m-width-6\"\n    style=\"\"\n    >\n    <p>    <p class=\"bbg-metadata bbg-metadata--date\">September 11, 2025<\/p>\n<div\n\tclass=\"bb-wysiwyg\"\n\t\t>\n\t<p><strong>Bloomberg News<\/strong><\/p>\n\n<\/div>\n\n<\/div><div\n    class=\"bbg-column bbg-column--width-2 bbg-column--valign-middle bbg-column--m-width-2 bbg-column--s-padding-right-2\"\n    style=\"\"\n    >\n    <div class=\"bb-tts\"\n\tdata-selector=\"main\"\n\tdata-label=\"Speak this page\"\n\tdata-custom-play=\"Play\"\n\tdata-custom-pause=\"Pause\"\n\tdata-custom-stop=\"Stop\"\n\tdata-overlay=\"false\"\n\tdata-invert=\"false\"\n\tdata-no-time=\"false\"\n\tdata-no-button-text=\"false\"\n\tdata-one-button=\"true\"\n\tdata-one-style=\"true\"\n\tdata-hide-stop=\"true\"\n\tdata-voice=\"Gordon\"\n\tdata-pitch=\"1\"\n\tdata-speed=\"1\"\n\tdata-align=\"flex-start\"\n>\n<\/div>\n\n\n<\/div><div\n    class=\"bbg-column bbg-column--width-2\"\n    style=\"\"\n    >\n    \n<\/div>\n\n\n                    <\/div>\n    <\/section>\n<\/div>\n\n<div  class=\"bbg-row-container\">\n    <section class=\"bbg-row  text--black row-padding--top-compact row-padding--bottom-compact bbg-row--full-bg-bleed\" data-anchor='row-6a09249f80196'>\n        \n        \n        <div\n            class=\"bbg-row--content\"\n                    >\n            \n            <p><div\n    class=\"bbg-column bbg-column--width-2\"\n    style=\"\"\n    >\n    \n<\/div><div\n    class=\"bbg-column bbg-column--width-8\"\n    style=\"\"\n    >\n    <p><div\n\tclass=\"bb-wysiwyg\"\n\t\t>\n\t<p><i><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">This article was written by Abeer Abu Omar and Christine Burke at Bloomberg News. <em>\u00a0It appeared first on the Bloomberg Terminal.<\/em><\/span><\/i><\/p>\n<p>Around a decade ago, Saudi Arabia\u2019s now Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman (MBS) said the kingdom\u2019s economy would be able to survive without oil by 2020, a claim he linked to huge investments aimed at steering the country into a new era. Today, key indicators show the government remains just as reliant on petrodollars, if not more so.<\/p>\n<p>The push to end Saudi Arabia\u2019s \u201caddiction\u201d to crude oil, as MBS himself put it a short time later, has led to major social and economic changes. Millions more women have formal jobs, tourism has surged and new industries from electric vehicles to semiconductors are growing.<\/p>\n<p>Yet economic diversification, a central aim of MBS\u2019s Vision 2030 plan, is happening more slowly than the government hoped. Saudi Arabia\u2019s dependence on oil revenue is largely unchanged from 2016 and has even deepened by some measures.<\/p>\n<h2>Saudi Arabia needs higher oil prices than in 2016<\/h2>\n<p><strong>PIF domestic spending takes the fiscal breakeven price to over $100<\/strong><\/p>\n\n<\/div>\n<div id=\"\" class=\"wpb_content_element bbg-single-image align-left\">\n    <figure class=\"bbg-single-image__figure\" style=\"max-width:100%\">\n                <img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" width=\"2716\" height=\"1340\" src=\"https:\/\/assets.bbhub.io\/image\/v1\/resize?width=auto&amp;type=webp&amp;url=https:\/\/assets.bbhub.io\/professional\/sites\/41\/Figure-1-Saudi-Arabia-MBS-are-Far-From-Ending-Their-Reliance-on-Oil.png\" class=\"bbg-single-image__image attachment-full\" alt=\"Figure 1 - Saudi Arabia, MBS are Far From Ending Their Reliance on Oil\" title=\"Figure-1-Saudi-Arabia-MBS-are-Far-From-Ending-Their-Reliance-on-Oil\" srcset=\"https:\/\/assets.bbhub.io\/image\/v1\/resize?width=auto&amp;type=webp&amp;url=https:\/\/assets.bbhub.io\/professional\/sites\/41\/Figure-1-Saudi-Arabia-MBS-are-Far-From-Ending-Their-Reliance-on-Oil.png 2716w, https:\/\/assets.bbhub.io\/image\/v1\/resize?width=auto&amp;type=webp&amp;url=https:\/\/assets.bbhub.io\/professional\/sites\/41\/Figure-1-Saudi-Arabia-MBS-are-Far-From-Ending-Their-Reliance-on-Oil.png 552w, https:\/\/assets.bbhub.io\/image\/v1\/resize?width=auto&amp;type=webp&amp;url=https:\/\/assets.bbhub.io\/professional\/sites\/41\/Figure-1-Saudi-Arabia-MBS-are-Far-From-Ending-Their-Reliance-on-Oil.png 800w, https:\/\/assets.bbhub.io\/image\/v1\/resize?width=auto&amp;type=webp&amp;url=https:\/\/assets.bbhub.io\/professional\/sites\/41\/Figure-1-Saudi-Arabia-MBS-are-Far-From-Ending-Their-Reliance-on-Oil.png 768w, https:\/\/assets.bbhub.io\/image\/v1\/resize?width=auto&amp;type=webp&amp;url=https:\/\/assets.bbhub.io\/professional\/sites\/41\/Figure-1-Saudi-Arabia-MBS-are-Far-From-Ending-Their-Reliance-on-Oil.png 1536w, https:\/\/assets.bbhub.io\/image\/v1\/resize?width=auto&amp;type=webp&amp;url=https:\/\/assets.bbhub.io\/professional\/sites\/41\/Figure-1-Saudi-Arabia-MBS-are-Far-From-Ending-Their-Reliance-on-Oil.png 2048w, https:\/\/assets.bbhub.io\/image\/v1\/resize?width=auto&amp;type=webp&amp;url=https:\/\/assets.bbhub.io\/professional\/sites\/41\/Figure-1-Saudi-Arabia-MBS-are-Far-From-Ending-Their-Reliance-on-Oil.png 192w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 2716px) 100vw, 2716px\" \/>\n        \n            <\/figure>\n<\/div>\n\n<\/div>\n\n\n                    <\/div>\n    <\/section>\n<\/div>\n\n<div  class=\"bbg-row-container\">\n    <section class=\"bbg-row  text--black row-padding--top-none row-padding--bottom-none bbg-row--margin-top-compact bbg-row--margin-bottom-compact bbg-row--full-bg-bleed\" data-anchor='row-6a09249f84701'>\n        \n        \n        <div\n            class=\"bbg-row--content\"\n                    >\n            \n            <div\n    class=\"bbg-column\"\n    style=\"\"\n    >\n    <div class=\"bbg-interstitial\" aria-label=\"interstitial\" tabindex=\"0\">\n\t<style>\n\t\t.bbg-interstitial #card_1.bbg-card_hasCta{\n\t\t\tbackground: url(https:\/\/assets.bbhub.io\/image\/v1\/resize?width=auto&amp;type=webp&amp;url=https:\/\/assets.bbhub.io\/professional\/sites\/41\/Interstitial_bg.png);\n\t\t\t\tbackground-repeat: no-repeat;\n\t\t\t\tbackground-position: center center;\n\t\t\t\tbackground-size: cover;\n\t\t\tpadding: 104px;\n\t\t\t\n\t\t\t\n\t\t}\n\t\t.bbg-interstitial #card_1.bbg-card_hasCta .bbg-card__content, .bbg-interstitial #card_1.bbg-card_hasCta .bbg-card__content p{\n\t\t\tcolor:white;\n\t\t}\n\t\t@media (max-width: 768px) {\n\t\t\t.bbg-interstitial #card_1.bbg-card_hasCta{\n\t\t\t\tpadding: 80px 32px;\n\t\t\t}\n\t\t}\n\t\t@media (max-width: 480px) {\n\t\t\t.bbg-interstitial #card_1.bbg-card_hasCta{\n\t\t\t\tpadding: 80px 18px;\n\t\t\t}\n\t\t}\n\t<\/style>\n\t<div class=\"wpb_content_element bbg-card  bbg-card-dark bbg-card_hasCta has_interstitial\" id=\"card_1\" data-card_type=\"no_image\">\n  \n  \n  <div class=\"bbg-card__innerwrapper\">\n    <div class=\"bbg-card__content\">\n      \n      \n                      <h3 class=\"bbg-card__title\">Discover more with Bloomberg newsletters<\/h3>\n      \n              <div class=\"bbg-card__wysiwyg bb-wysiwyg\"><p>Subscribe now<\/p>\n<\/div>\n          <\/div>\n\n          \n<div\n  id=\"cta_1316520398973534107\"\n  class=\"wpb_content_element bbg-cta icon icon-arrow\">\n  <style>\n    \n    \n    \n  <\/style>\n  <div\n    class=\"bbg-cta-link link-holder\"\n    data-links-type=\"cta-links\">\n    <p class=\"bbg-cta-p right\">\n      <a\n        class=\"bbg-cta-link link interstitial_cta\"\n        href=\"https:\/\/www.bloomberg.com\/professional\/insights\/newsletter\/\"\n        target=\"\"\n        rel=\"\"\n        data-section-name=\"\"\n                role=\"button\"\n        aria-label=\"Learn more\"\n        >\n                <\/a>\n    <\/p>\n  <\/div>\n<\/div>\n\n      <\/div>\n\n  <\/div>\n\n<\/div>\n\n\n<\/div>\n\n\n                    <\/div>\n    <\/section>\n<\/div>\n\n<div  class=\"bbg-row-container\">\n    <section class=\"bbg-row  text--black row-padding--top-compact row-padding--bottom-none bbg-row--full-bg-bleed\" data-anchor='row-6a09249f89d09'>\n        \n        \n        <div\n            class=\"bbg-row--content\"\n                    >\n            \n            <p><div\n    class=\"bbg-column bbg-column--width-2\"\n    style=\"\"\n    >\n    \n<\/div><div\n    class=\"bbg-column bbg-column--width-8\"\n    style=\"\"\n    >\n    <p><div\n\tclass=\"bb-wysiwyg\"\n\t\t>\n\t<p>The Gulf nation\u2019s fiscal breakeven oil price now stands at $96 a barrel, Bloomberg Economics estimates. That\u2019s higher than a decade ago and if domestic investment by the sovereign wealth fund \u2014 crucial to Vision 2030 \u2014 is included, the figure is $113.<\/p>\n<p>While that is seen as a rudimentary measure by some economists, it gives a guide as to what oil price the kingdom\u2019s budget can handle. Since the beginning of 2024, Brent has averaged just $76.50, leading the government to ramp up borrowing in international bond markets and consider more asset sales to help finance its fiscal deficit.<\/p>\n<p>\u201cThe core aim of Vision 2030 is to cut oil dependence,\u201d said Ziad Daoud, Bloomberg Economics\u2019 chief emerging markets economist. Yet \u201cthe kingdom has become more reliant on oil.\u201d<\/p>\n<p>In addition to the budget breakeven, Daoud said Saudi Arabia needs a higher crude price than in 2016 to balance its current account, or pay for imports and offset outward remittances. \u201cThis is mainly because of surging public spending,\u201d he said, \u201cnot just on glitzy mega-projects but also due to implicit popular pressure to ramp up outlays when oil rises.\u201d<\/p>\n<h2>Rising non-oil revenues far offset by increase spending<\/h2>\n<p><strong>Saudi Arabia tends to raise expenditure at times of elevated oil process<\/strong><\/p>\n\n<\/div>\n<div id=\"\" class=\"wpb_content_element bbg-single-image align-left\">\n    <figure class=\"bbg-single-image__figure\" style=\"max-width:100%\">\n                <img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" width=\"2712\" height=\"1436\" src=\"https:\/\/assets.bbhub.io\/image\/v1\/resize?width=auto&amp;type=webp&amp;url=https:\/\/assets.bbhub.io\/professional\/sites\/41\/Figure-2-Saudi-Arabia-MBS-are-Far-From-Ending-Their-Reliance-on-Oil.png\" class=\"bbg-single-image__image attachment-full\" alt=\"Figure 2 - Saudi Arabia, MBS are Far From Ending Their Reliance on Oil\" title=\"Figure-2-Saudi-Arabia-MBS-are-Far-From-Ending-Their-Reliance-on-Oil\" srcset=\"https:\/\/assets.bbhub.io\/image\/v1\/resize?width=auto&amp;type=webp&amp;url=https:\/\/assets.bbhub.io\/professional\/sites\/41\/Figure-2-Saudi-Arabia-MBS-are-Far-From-Ending-Their-Reliance-on-Oil.png 2712w, https:\/\/assets.bbhub.io\/image\/v1\/resize?width=auto&amp;type=webp&amp;url=https:\/\/assets.bbhub.io\/professional\/sites\/41\/Figure-2-Saudi-Arabia-MBS-are-Far-From-Ending-Their-Reliance-on-Oil.png 552w, https:\/\/assets.bbhub.io\/image\/v1\/resize?width=auto&amp;type=webp&amp;url=https:\/\/assets.bbhub.io\/professional\/sites\/41\/Figure-2-Saudi-Arabia-MBS-are-Far-From-Ending-Their-Reliance-on-Oil.png 800w, https:\/\/assets.bbhub.io\/image\/v1\/resize?width=auto&amp;type=webp&amp;url=https:\/\/assets.bbhub.io\/professional\/sites\/41\/Figure-2-Saudi-Arabia-MBS-are-Far-From-Ending-Their-Reliance-on-Oil.png 768w, https:\/\/assets.bbhub.io\/image\/v1\/resize?width=auto&amp;type=webp&amp;url=https:\/\/assets.bbhub.io\/professional\/sites\/41\/Figure-2-Saudi-Arabia-MBS-are-Far-From-Ending-Their-Reliance-on-Oil.png 1536w, https:\/\/assets.bbhub.io\/image\/v1\/resize?width=auto&amp;type=webp&amp;url=https:\/\/assets.bbhub.io\/professional\/sites\/41\/Figure-2-Saudi-Arabia-MBS-are-Far-From-Ending-Their-Reliance-on-Oil.png 2048w, https:\/\/assets.bbhub.io\/image\/v1\/resize?width=auto&amp;type=webp&amp;url=https:\/\/assets.bbhub.io\/professional\/sites\/41\/Figure-2-Saudi-Arabia-MBS-are-Far-From-Ending-Their-Reliance-on-Oil.png 192w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 2712px) 100vw, 2712px\" \/>\n        \n            <\/figure>\n<\/div>\n\n<div\n\tclass=\"bb-wysiwyg\"\n\t\t>\n\t<p>The government has historically hiked spending when crude prices are elevated, an approach it planned to forgo as part of the push to reduce its reliance on oil. Finance Minister Mohammed Al-Jadaan has said officials don\u2019t \u201ceven look at the oil price\u201d any longer.<\/p>\n<p>Still, oil continues to provide about 60% of government revenue and accounts for more than 65% of exports.<\/p>\n<p>Finance officials outlined plans to trim spending in 2025 after overshooting targets the previous year. That was partly because of expenditure on the so-called giga projects, which include the new city of Neom and a cube-shaped skyscraper in Riyadh big enough to fit 20 Empire State Buildings. It was also due to accelerated investments to boost new industries.<\/p>\n<p>\u201cSaudi Arabia continues to advance the Vision 2030 agenda with determination, despite global economic headwinds and regional volatility,\u201d a finance ministry spokesperson said in a statement to Bloomberg. \u201cThe structural transformation of the Saudi economy is not a short-term project. It is a generational endeavor that is already delivering measurable progress across key sectors. Saudi Arabia\u2019s fiscal position remains robust.\u201d<\/p>\n<p>The non-oil economy grew more than 4.5% in the first quarter of this year, consistent with government targets. The sector now makes up more than half the country\u2019s $1.1 trillion of gross domestic product.<\/p>\n<p>Revenues from the non-oil sector have risen substantially, to over $134 billion in 2024 from about $50 billion in 2016. Yet higher government expenditures have offset much of those gains, resulting in the kingdom running fiscal deficits every quarter for more than two years.<\/p>\n<p>\u201cGiven the sharp increase in government spending over the last few years and the fall in the oil price this year, a more cautious fiscal stance is prudent,\u201d said Monica Malik, chief economist at Abu Dhabi Commercial Bank PJSC. \u201cSaudi Arabia has strong fiscal buffers, though these could be eroded quickly.\u201d<\/p>\n\n<\/div>\n\n<\/div>\n\n\n                    <\/div>\n    <\/section>\n<\/div>\n\n<div  class=\"bbg-row-container\">\n    <style>section[data-anchor=row-6a09249f8dce3]::before {\n\t\t\t\tbackground-color: #f4f4f9;\n\t\t\t}<\/style>\n    <section class=\"bbg-row bg--custom-color  bg--f4f4f9 text--black bbg-row--full-bg-bleed\" data-anchor='row-6a09249f8dce3'>\n        \n        \n        <div\n            class=\"bbg-row--content\"\n                    >\n            \n            <p><div\n    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Today, key indicators show the kingdom remains heavily reliant on petrodollars.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1933,"featured_media":126064,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"template-article.php","format":"standard","meta":{"_yoast_wpseo_primary_category":"534","footnotes":""},"categories":[540,453,534],"tags":[3827,3778],"series":[],"class_list":["post-125873","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-commodities","category-markets","category-regional-analysis","tag-mea","tag-terminal","type-article"],"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO plugin v19.11 - https:\/\/yoast.com\/wordpress\/plugins\/seo\/ -->\n<title>Saudi Arabia, MBS are far from ending their reliance on oil | Insights | Bloomberg Professional Services<\/title>\n<meta name=\"description\" content=\"About ten years ago, Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman claimed Saudi Arabia\u2019s economy could survive without oil by 2020. 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