{"id":125868,"date":"2025-09-16T13:29:39","date_gmt":"2025-09-16T17:29:39","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.bloomberg.com\/professional\/insights\/regional-analysis\/south-africa-insight-rising-job-losses-threaten-fiscal-goals\/"},"modified":"2025-09-24T15:13:35","modified_gmt":"2025-09-24T19:13:35","slug":"south-africa-insight-rising-job-losses-threaten-fiscal-goals","status":"publish","type":[3762],"link":"https:\/\/www.bloomberg.com\/professional\/insights\/regional-analysis\/south-africa-insight-rising-job-losses-threaten-fiscal-goals\/","title":{"rendered":"South Africa Insight: Rising job losses threaten fiscal goals"},"content":{"rendered":"<div  class=\"bbg-row-container\">\n    <section class=\"bbg-row  text--black row-padding--top-compact row-padding--bottom-none bbg-row--full-bg-bleed\" data-anchor='row-6a093bf27cc49'>\n        \n        \n        <div\n            class=\"bbg-row--content\"\n                    >\n            \n            <p><div\n    class=\"bbg-column bbg-column--width-7\"\n    style=\"\"\n    >\n    <p><div\n    class=\"bbg-spacer bbg-spacer--lg\"\n    >\n<\/div><div\n\tclass=\"bb-wysiwyg\"\n\t\t>\n\t<p class=\"small\"><strong><span style=\"font-size: 14px; letter-spacing: 1px; color: #0062dd;\">ARTICLE<\/span><\/strong><\/p>\n\n<\/div>\n<div\n    class=\"bbg-spacer bbg-spacer--sm\"\n    >\n<\/div>    <h1 class=\"bbg-metadata bbg-metadata--title\">South Africa Insight: Rising job losses threaten fiscal goals<\/h1>\n<div\n    class=\"bbg-spacer\"\n        style=\"height: 50px !important\"\n    >\n<\/div>    <ul class=\"bbg-categories_list\">\n                    <li>\n                <a href=\"https:\/\/www.bloomberg.com\/professional\/insights\/category\/markets\/\" rel=\"category tag\">\n                    Markets\n                <\/a>\n            <\/li>\n                    <li>\n                <a href=\"https:\/\/www.bloomberg.com\/professional\/insights\/category\/regional-analysis\/\" rel=\"category tag\">\n                    Regional Analysis\n                <\/a>\n            <\/li>\n            <\/ul>\n<\/p>\n\n<\/div><div\n    class=\"bbg-column bbg-column--width-5\"\n    style=\"\"\n    >\n    <div id=\"\" class=\"wpb_content_element bbg-single-image align-left\">\n    <figure class=\"bbg-single-image__figure\" style=\"max-width:100%\">\n                <img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" width=\"4000\" height=\"2670\" src=\"https:\/\/assets.bbhub.io\/image\/v1\/resize?width=auto&amp;type=webp&amp;url=https:\/\/assets.bbhub.io\/professional\/sites\/41\/343034827-1.jpg\" class=\"bbg-single-image__image attachment-full\" alt=\"South African rand 10, 20, 50 and 100 banknotes in South Africa.\" title=\"343034827-1\" srcset=\"https:\/\/assets.bbhub.io\/image\/v1\/resize?width=auto&amp;type=webp&amp;url=https:\/\/assets.bbhub.io\/professional\/sites\/41\/343034827-1.jpg 4000w, https:\/\/assets.bbhub.io\/image\/v1\/resize?width=auto&amp;type=webp&amp;url=https:\/\/assets.bbhub.io\/professional\/sites\/41\/343034827-1.jpg 552w, https:\/\/assets.bbhub.io\/image\/v1\/resize?width=auto&amp;type=webp&amp;url=https:\/\/assets.bbhub.io\/professional\/sites\/41\/343034827-1.jpg 800w, https:\/\/assets.bbhub.io\/image\/v1\/resize?width=auto&amp;type=webp&amp;url=https:\/\/assets.bbhub.io\/professional\/sites\/41\/343034827-1.jpg 768w, https:\/\/assets.bbhub.io\/image\/v1\/resize?width=auto&amp;type=webp&amp;url=https:\/\/assets.bbhub.io\/professional\/sites\/41\/343034827-1.jpg 1536w, https:\/\/assets.bbhub.io\/image\/v1\/resize?width=auto&amp;type=webp&amp;url=https:\/\/assets.bbhub.io\/professional\/sites\/41\/343034827-1.jpg 2048w, https:\/\/assets.bbhub.io\/image\/v1\/resize?width=auto&amp;type=webp&amp;url=https:\/\/assets.bbhub.io\/professional\/sites\/41\/343034827-1.jpg 162w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 4000px) 100vw, 4000px\" \/>\n        \n            <\/figure>\n<\/div>\n\n\n\n<\/div>\n\n\n                    <\/div>\n    <\/section>\n<\/div>\n\n<div  class=\"bbg-row-container\">\n    <section class=\"bbg-row  text--black row-padding--top-none row-padding--bottom-none bbg-row--full-bg-bleed\" data-anchor='row-6a093bf289282'>\n        \n        \n        <div\n            class=\"bbg-row--content\"\n                    >\n            \n            <p><div\n    class=\"bbg-column bbg-column--width-2\"\n    style=\"\"\n    >\n    \n<\/div><div\n    class=\"bbg-column bbg-column--width-6 bbg-column--m-width-6\"\n    style=\"\"\n    >\n    <p>    <p class=\"bbg-metadata bbg-metadata--date\">September 16, 2025<\/p>\n<div\n\tclass=\"bb-wysiwyg\"\n\t\t>\n\t<p><strong>Bloomberg Intelligence<\/strong><\/p>\n\n<\/div>\n\n<\/div><div\n    class=\"bbg-column bbg-column--width-2 bbg-column--valign-middle bbg-column--m-width-2 bbg-column--s-padding-right-2\"\n    style=\"\"\n    >\n    <div class=\"bb-tts\"\n\tdata-selector=\"main\"\n\tdata-label=\"Speak this page\"\n\tdata-custom-play=\"Play\"\n\tdata-custom-pause=\"Pause\"\n\tdata-custom-stop=\"Stop\"\n\tdata-overlay=\"false\"\n\tdata-invert=\"false\"\n\tdata-no-time=\"false\"\n\tdata-no-button-text=\"false\"\n\tdata-one-button=\"true\"\n\tdata-one-style=\"true\"\n\tdata-hide-stop=\"true\"\n\tdata-voice=\"Gordon\"\n\tdata-pitch=\"1\"\n\tdata-speed=\"1\"\n\tdata-align=\"flex-start\"\n>\n<\/div>\n\n\n<\/div><div\n    class=\"bbg-column bbg-column--width-2\"\n    style=\"\"\n    >\n    \n<\/div>\n\n\n                    <\/div>\n    <\/section>\n<\/div>\n\n<div  class=\"bbg-row-container\">\n    <section class=\"bbg-row  text--black row-padding--top-compact row-padding--bottom-compact bbg-row--full-bg-bleed\" data-anchor='row-6a093bf28c5fb'>\n        \n        \n        <div\n            class=\"bbg-row--content\"\n                    >\n            \n            <p><div\n    class=\"bbg-column bbg-column--width-2\"\n    style=\"\"\n    >\n    \n<\/div><div\n    class=\"bbg-column bbg-column--width-8\"\n    style=\"\"\n    >\n    <div\n\tclass=\"bb-wysiwyg\"\n\t\t>\n\t<p><i><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">This article was written by Bloomberg Intelligence Emerging Markets Economist Yvonne Mhango.<em>\u00a0It appeared first on the Bloomberg Terminal.<\/em><\/span><\/i><\/p>\n<p>Rising unemployment typically strains government budgets by eroding tax revenue and lifting social transfers. In South Africa, the deteriorating jobs outlook compounds existing pressures that will likely prevent the government from narrowing the deficit and stabilizing debt this year.<\/p>\n<ul>\n<li>The high jobless rate stems from years of sluggish growth, compounded by chronic power shortages that curbed industrial activity and undermined investor confidence.<\/li>\n<li>This cyclical weakness worsened an already-high jobless rate rooted in structural legacies &#8211; including a skills mismatch, spatial inequalities, high barriers to entry for small and informal businesses, and rigid labor protections that discourage hiring.<\/li>\n<li>As unemployment has climbed, the budget deficit has widened in tandem &#8211; reflecting slowing revenues in an anemic economy.<\/li>\n<li>A special social grant for unemployed adults introduced during the Covid pandemic sped up this deterioration.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n<\/div>\n\n\n<\/div>\n\n\n                    <\/div>\n    <\/section>\n<\/div>\n\n<div  class=\"bbg-row-container\">\n    <section class=\"bbg-row  text--black row-padding--top-none row-padding--bottom-none bbg-row--margin-top-compact bbg-row--margin-bottom-compact bbg-row--full-bg-bleed\" data-anchor='row-6a093bf28e69f'>\n        \n        \n        <div\n            class=\"bbg-row--content\"\n                    >\n            \n            <div\n    class=\"bbg-column\"\n    style=\"\"\n    >\n    <div class=\"bbg-interstitial\" aria-label=\"interstitial\" tabindex=\"0\">\n\t<style>\n\t\t.bbg-interstitial #card_1.bbg-card_hasCta{\n\t\t\tbackground: url(https:\/\/assets.bbhub.io\/image\/v1\/resize?width=auto&amp;type=webp&amp;url=https:\/\/assets.bbhub.io\/professional\/sites\/41\/Interstitial_bg.png);\n\t\t\t\tbackground-repeat: no-repeat;\n\t\t\t\tbackground-position: center center;\n\t\t\t\tbackground-size: cover;\n\t\t\tpadding: 104px;\n\t\t\t\n\t\t\t\n\t\t}\n\t\t.bbg-interstitial #card_1.bbg-card_hasCta .bbg-card__content, .bbg-interstitial #card_1.bbg-card_hasCta .bbg-card__content p{\n\t\t\tcolor:white;\n\t\t}\n\t\t@media (max-width: 768px) {\n\t\t\t.bbg-interstitial #card_1.bbg-card_hasCta{\n\t\t\t\tpadding: 80px 32px;\n\t\t\t}\n\t\t}\n\t\t@media (max-width: 480px) {\n\t\t\t.bbg-interstitial #card_1.bbg-card_hasCta{\n\t\t\t\tpadding: 80px 18px;\n\t\t\t}\n\t\t}\n\t<\/style>\n\t<div class=\"wpb_content_element bbg-card  bbg-card-dark bbg-card_hasCta has_interstitial\" id=\"card_1\" data-card_type=\"no_image\">\n  \n  \n  <div class=\"bbg-card__innerwrapper\">\n    <div class=\"bbg-card__content\">\n      \n      \n                      <h3 class=\"bbg-card__title\">Discover more with Bloomberg newsletters<\/h3>\n      \n              <div class=\"bbg-card__wysiwyg bb-wysiwyg\"><p>Subscribe now<\/p>\n<\/div>\n          <\/div>\n\n          \n<div\n  id=\"cta_6431866982069572444\"\n  class=\"wpb_content_element bbg-cta icon icon-arrow\">\n  <style>\n    \n    \n    \n  <\/style>\n  <div\n    class=\"bbg-cta-link link-holder\"\n    data-links-type=\"cta-links\">\n    <p class=\"bbg-cta-p right\">\n      <a\n        class=\"bbg-cta-link link interstitial_cta\"\n        href=\"https:\/\/www.bloomberg.com\/professional\/insights\/newsletter\/\"\n        target=\"\"\n        rel=\"\"\n        data-section-name=\"\"\n                role=\"button\"\n        aria-label=\"Learn more\"\n        >\n                <\/a>\n    <\/p>\n  <\/div>\n<\/div>\n\n      <\/div>\n\n  <\/div>\n\n<\/div>\n\n\n<\/div>\n\n\n                    <\/div>\n    <\/section>\n<\/div>\n\n<div  class=\"bbg-row-container\">\n    <section class=\"bbg-row  text--black row-padding--top-compact row-padding--bottom-none bbg-row--full-bg-bleed\" data-anchor='row-6a093bf294598'>\n        \n        \n        <div\n            class=\"bbg-row--content\"\n                    >\n            \n            <p><div\n    class=\"bbg-column bbg-column--width-2\"\n    style=\"\"\n    >\n    \n<\/div><div\n    class=\"bbg-column bbg-column--width-8\"\n    style=\"\"\n    >\n    <div\n\tclass=\"bb-wysiwyg\"\n\t\t>\n\t<h2>Budget balance widens alongside the rise in the jobless rate<\/h2>\n\n<\/div>\n<div id=\"\" class=\"wpb_content_element bbg-single-image align-left\">\n    <figure class=\"bbg-single-image__figure\" style=\"max-width:100%\">\n                <img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" width=\"2182\" height=\"1208\" src=\"https:\/\/assets.bbhub.io\/image\/v1\/resize?width=auto&amp;type=webp&amp;url=https:\/\/assets.bbhub.io\/professional\/sites\/41\/Figure-1-SOUTH-AFRICA-INSIGHT-Rising-Job-Losses-Threaten-Fiscal-Goals.png\" class=\"bbg-single-image__image attachment-full\" alt=\"Figure 1 - SOUTH AFRICA INSIGHT - Rising Job Losses Threaten Fiscal Goals\" title=\"Figure-1-SOUTH-AFRICA-INSIGHT-Rising-Job-Losses-Threaten-Fiscal-Goals\" srcset=\"https:\/\/assets.bbhub.io\/image\/v1\/resize?width=auto&amp;type=webp&amp;url=https:\/\/assets.bbhub.io\/professional\/sites\/41\/Figure-1-SOUTH-AFRICA-INSIGHT-Rising-Job-Losses-Threaten-Fiscal-Goals.png 2182w, https:\/\/assets.bbhub.io\/image\/v1\/resize?width=auto&amp;type=webp&amp;url=https:\/\/assets.bbhub.io\/professional\/sites\/41\/Figure-1-SOUTH-AFRICA-INSIGHT-Rising-Job-Losses-Threaten-Fiscal-Goals.png 552w, https:\/\/assets.bbhub.io\/image\/v1\/resize?width=auto&amp;type=webp&amp;url=https:\/\/assets.bbhub.io\/professional\/sites\/41\/Figure-1-SOUTH-AFRICA-INSIGHT-Rising-Job-Losses-Threaten-Fiscal-Goals.png 800w, https:\/\/assets.bbhub.io\/image\/v1\/resize?width=auto&amp;type=webp&amp;url=https:\/\/assets.bbhub.io\/professional\/sites\/41\/Figure-1-SOUTH-AFRICA-INSIGHT-Rising-Job-Losses-Threaten-Fiscal-Goals.png 768w, https:\/\/assets.bbhub.io\/image\/v1\/resize?width=auto&amp;type=webp&amp;url=https:\/\/assets.bbhub.io\/professional\/sites\/41\/Figure-1-SOUTH-AFRICA-INSIGHT-Rising-Job-Losses-Threaten-Fiscal-Goals.png 1536w, https:\/\/assets.bbhub.io\/image\/v1\/resize?width=auto&amp;type=webp&amp;url=https:\/\/assets.bbhub.io\/professional\/sites\/41\/Figure-1-SOUTH-AFRICA-INSIGHT-Rising-Job-Losses-Threaten-Fiscal-Goals.png 2048w, https:\/\/assets.bbhub.io\/image\/v1\/resize?width=auto&amp;type=webp&amp;url=https:\/\/assets.bbhub.io\/professional\/sites\/41\/Figure-1-SOUTH-AFRICA-INSIGHT-Rising-Job-Losses-Threaten-Fiscal-Goals.png 192w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 2182px) 100vw, 2182px\" \/>\n        \n            <\/figure>\n<\/div>\n\n<div\n\tclass=\"bb-wysiwyg\"\n\t\t>\n\t<ul>\n<li>South Africa was already operating one of the largest social grant systems in the developing world, serving millions of children, elderly and disabled.<\/li>\n<li>The new grant, launched in 2020, extended support to working-age adults &#8211; the group hit hardest as lockdowns wiped out jobs. Meant as a temporary measure, the grant has been repeatedly extended as the labor market stays weak and the economy struggles.<\/li>\n<li>Unemployment pressures are set to intensify further. New US tariffs and rising competition from Asian imports are likely to hurt local manufacturers. South Africa faces the continent\u2019s highest levy \u2014 30% \u2014 which will hit its automotive and agriculture sectors particularly hard.<\/li>\n<li>Local carmakers, already squeezed by rising imports from Asia, have announced jobs cuts. A major steelmaker plans to close this year due to high costs, logistical bottlenecks, and import competition, eliminating more than 3,000 jobs.<\/li>\n<li>Weaker-than-expected growth will cut tax revenue, with tariff-hit sectors and a rising jobless rate adding to the shortfall. At the same time, spending on social grants is likely to rise as more of the unemployed qualify for support.<\/li>\n<li>As a result, the consolidated budget deficit will likely exceed the government\u2019s planned 4.8% of GDP for this year and 3.8% next year, delaying the stabilization of public debt &#8211; which stood at 76.9% of GDP in March &#8211; beyond 2026.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n<\/div>\n<div class=\"bbg-accordion transparent\">\n\t<input type=\"checkbox\"  id=\"bbg-accordion-toggle-6a093bf298c5b\">\n\t<div class=\"bbg-accordion-parent\" data-accordion-toggle aria-expanded=\"false\">\n\t\t<label class=\"bbg-accordion-label\" for=\"bbg-accordion-toggle-6a093bf298c5b\">\n\t\t\t\t<h4 class=\"bbg-accordion-title\" data-label=\"Disclaimer\">\n\t\tDisclaimer\n\t<\/h4>\n\n\t\t\t\t\t<\/label>\n\t<\/div>\n\t<div class=\"bbg-accordion-content\">\n\t\t<div class=\"bb-wysiwyg\">\n\t<p>The data included in these materials are for illustrative purposes only. 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In South Africa, worsening joblessness adds pressure, likely hindering efforts to narrow the deficit and stabilize debt this year.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1933,"featured_media":126063,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"template-article.php","format":"standard","meta":{"_yoast_wpseo_primary_category":"534","footnotes":""},"categories":[453,534],"tags":[3821,3827,3778],"series":[],"class_list":["post-125868","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-markets","category-regional-analysis","tag-bloomberg-economics","tag-mea","tag-terminal","type-article"],"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO plugin v19.11 - https:\/\/yoast.com\/wordpress\/plugins\/seo\/ -->\n<title>South Africa Insight: Rising job losses threaten fiscal goals | Insights | Bloomberg Professional Services<\/title>\n<meta name=\"description\" content=\"Rising unemployment reduces tax revenue and increases social spending, straining government budgets. 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