Consumers Are Spending on Leisure: 2026 Credit Oulook

Bond spreads for cruise lines and hotels might stay narrow vs. consumer-cyclical alternatives as selective leisure-related spending is a focus for consumers in 2026, as indicated by BI's US travel survey conducted Nov. 10-17. Yet, we see a delayed effect from macroeconomic uncertainty -- fiscal policies, inflation, China's economy and geopolitics -- that could pose more of an issue in the latter half of 2026 into 2027. Mixed weakness in rental cars, gaming and restaurants could translate to sector and company-specific credit-spread volatility.