Steel tariffs and the impact on auto manufacturers
After a year of newly imposed tariffs on imported steel, North America has seen significant changes in this metal’s pricing and spreads. The automotive industry was by far the most affected as steel is integral to multiple aspects of a vehicle’s life — manufacturing, driving and end-of-life recycling. As the global demand scenario for autos is shifting, what will be the impact on the needs of manufacturers and what will they do to navigate in this new environment?
Known as Section 232, the current steel tariffs imposed by President Trump continue to be a cause of concern with the United States-Mexico-Canada Agreement (USMCA) ratification. Trade representatives from the three countries are engaged in ongoing discussions about quotas and potentially removing the tariffs altogether. In the meantime, industry players are wary of the regional impacts on pricing, as steel produced in North America is still the most expensive in the world.
The industry’s cost issues are heightened as market participants try to determine what the long-term impact on pricing and profits based on what the manufacturing demand will be. The cost of the busheling scrap benchmark, shredded auto scrap and cold rolled steel have all come off highs in the last two quarters, however the auto scrap has moved up from recent February lows. Since April of 2016, shredded auto scrap is up 70% vs 37% for cold rolled steel. When the tariffs were imposed in March of 2018 and there were subsequent highs, auto scrap was down 10% and cold rolled steel was down 22%.
Analyzing the spread between the cost of scrap metal and steel prices with auto scrap and busheling is a good indication of near term steel pricing behavior. The spread has widened since late 2018, as steel has continued to come off 2018 highs far faster than scrap.
When it comes to the steel industry’s demand, a major component is the auto industry. US auto sales are coming off a period below 5 year averages for Q1 2019, but auto sales in China remain at 5 year lows. Combined with new energy vehicles (NEV) incentives in China, such as an increasing array of NEV models and the subsequent light-weighting of vehicles, this indicates that unless manufacturers respond to reduced input costs by pushing sales incentives, there may not be a continued strong natural demand for consumption from the retail auto buyers for traditional internal combustion engine (ICE) vehicles.
The current tariff discussions that are happening and the potential relief within the USMCA contributes to the elevated North America prices when compared to China and Europe. The duration of this trend, however, is going to be critical to the bottom line and the industry overall.