China’s coal expansion
China’s lead in global coal expansion could thwart emissions cut
China is poised to remain the world’s biggest coal consumer with its planned expansion of coal-fired plants accounting for about 54% of the global total as of July, which might thwart the nation’s 2060 net-zero goal. China also leads the world in terms of proposed coal mines, whose potential additional emissions will likely exceed that from the rest of the world
China accounts for half of coal-plant expansion
China is poised to remain the world’s biggest coal consumer with its 197 GW of fossil-fuel plants authorized for construction, which represents up to 18.3% of the country’s operating total and 54% of the global share. It put 26.2 GW of new coal-fired power capacity into operation during 2021 — 35% more than the combined added in the rest of the world. Global coal-fired capacity stayed flat at 2,089 GW as of 2021, with no addition planned in Europe or the US where decommissioning of coal plants is accelerating. Most EU countries plan to close all coal plants by 2030, except Poland (by 2036), Germany (by 2038) and a few others. At around 1,111 GW as of July, China’s overall operating coal-fired capacity accounted for about 51% of the world’s total; it hasn’t given any date for closing its coal plants.
About 29% of global proposed new coal mines are in China
China’s coal output is likely to continue rising in the coming years as the nation leads the world in terms of coal mines under construction and proposed mines. China has 559 million tons of proposed new coal mines as of January 2022, based on Global Energy Monitor data, accounting for 29% of the world’s total and the highest in the world. Australia came in at second with 327 million tons and a 17% share, while India and Russia followed with 320 million tons and 303 million tons, each accounting for 16%. There are 1.94 billion tons of new coal mines proposed worldwide as of January, 14.6% less than that a year ago.
 Half of top 10 miners in expansion mode are Chinese
Five out of the top 10 expanding coal miners are from China, including China Shenhua Energy with 37 million tons of proposed new mining capacity, or 9.6% of its existing capacity. China Coal Energy has the second-largest expansion plan in China with 31 million tons of proposed new mines, representing a 20% gain. Coal India, the world’s largest miner of the fossil fuel in terms of capacity, has the highest proposed new mining capacity globally of 138 million tons.
Analysis of potential climate risks from proposed coal mines
China’s proposed new coal mines could release as much as 576 million tons of carbon emissions, based on global energy tracker forecasts, which would exceed the total potential release from the rest of the world. Having said that, it implies a mere 5% increase in China’s total CO2 emissions, given the country’s large base. The potential release by new coal mines may however pose higher climate risks to Mongolia and Australia, as emissions could be boosted by 25% and 20%, the highest among countries.
