BloombergNEF’s global EV outlook 2021: Commercial vehicles

This analysis is from BloombergNEF. It appeared first on the Bloomberg Terminal.

Overview

• In heavier duty segments, sales of electric trucks reach 30% by 2040, as cheap and dense batteries, and high-power charging stations make electrification suitable for long-haul, in addition to urban, operations – based on BloombergNEF’s Economic Transition Scenario in the latest long-term Electric Vehicle Outlook 2021.
• Natural gas takes about a fifth of the global market for medium- and heavy-duty trucks, but plays an almost negligible role in the light-duty commercial vehicle segment. Compressed or liquefied natural gas truck sales are between 20% and 30% in the U.S., China and some European countries, but remain at less than 10% in markets, such as India, Japan and Australia.

• Finally, fuel cell vehicles account for less than 3% of the medium- and heavy-duty truck sales by 2040 and about 1% of those in the LCVs. The share of hydrogen utilization is the highest in long-haul operations, but remains low in other use cases. China, some European countries, Japan and Korea see fuel cell truck sales between 7% and 10% in the medium- and heavy-duty segments by 2040.
• Very strong government support will be needed to achieve those sales. BloombergNEF estimates assume a certain scale-up of hydrogen production, storage and distribution. This infrastructure is still at a very early stage and also depends on hydrogen being adopted in areas such as industry and buildings.

Global commercial vehicle sales outlook by drivetrain and class

Note: *BloombergNEF’s Economic Transition Scenario (ETS) assumes no new policies or regulations are enacted that impact the market. It also does not assume any long-term climate targets are hit, or that any combustion vehicle phase-out targets that have been announced by countries, states, cities or companies are achieved. Instead, adoption is primarily driven by techno-economic trends and market forces. For a full explanation of the methodology for this scenario, refer to the Long-Term Electric Vehicle Outlook 2021 report.

BloombergNEF (BNEF), Bloomberg’s primary research service, covers clean energy, advanced transport, digital industry, innovative materials and commodities. BNEF helps corporate strategy, finance and policy professionals navigate change and generate opportunities. Explore more content on the BNEF blog.