Functions for the Market
Background
Denmark’s Novo Nordisk A/S, the obesity drug first mover, risks being outgrown by U.S. rival Eli Lilly & Co.
Novo, whose market value exceeds Danish gross domestic product, has struggled to meet soaring U.S. demand while fending off pressure for lower costs from Washington.
The success of Eli Lilly’s Zepbound, a challenger to Novo’s Wegovy, has prompted comparisons to a similar scenario, when Finland’s Nokia Oyj lost cellphone leadership to Apple Inc. Nokia’s market cap was as big as Apple’s was — and more than half the value of Finland’s GDP — before its decline started in 2008.
PRODUCT MENTIONS
The issue
Novo’s dollar market value has risen above $600 billion, exceeding the $400 billion annual GDP of Denmark.
Both Wegovy sales growth and Novo’s operating profit growth are expected to slow down by Q4 2025 to 41% and 16% respectively. Already, sales slowed in Q2 2024 due to supply shortages and price pressure. Widening rebates to pharmacy benefit managers mean that total prescription dollars are higher than revenue.
Zepbound, which trailed Wegovy by two years, is expected to have more staying power — and to reach $29 billion in sales by 2034.
Tracking
To monitor forecasts for Wegovy sales and Novo operating profit:
- Type “novo nordisk” in the command line and select NOVOB DC Equity. Select MODL – Company Financials from the menu. Click the Multiple Periods subtab. The shortcut is NOVOB DC Equity MODL SOURCE <GO>.
- Change the currency from DKK to USD at top left.
- Change periodicity from Annual to Quarter. Click > until 2025 Q4 appears.
- Under Highlights, scroll to click the chart symbol next to Wegovy Tick YOY Growth. Tick Operating Income and YOY Growth for Novo.
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