Fact Check: Trump Says He’d Push GDP Growth ‘5 or 6%’

Republican Donald Trump says his plan would push growth 5 or 6% while Democrat Hillary Clinton’s plan would push economy to contraction.

  • Generating growth that high would mean working against demographics
  • Trump claims he can create enough jobs to overcome a projection that his plans would take federal debt to 105% percent of GDP. But non-partisan Cmte for a Responsible Federal Budget, which made the projection, says that to balance the budget under Trump’s plan, "growth would need to reach a sustained 6.1% annually -- triple what most forecasters project"
  • Congressional Budget Office said in its 2016 budget and economic outlook that potential output has slowed from recent decades "mainly because of slower projected growth in the nation’s supply of labor, which is largely attributable to the ongoing retirement of baby boomers and the relatively stable labor force participation rate among working-age women"
    • CBO expects potential output to grow by 2% a year on average during 2021 to 2026 period