Identity and the Election: How Groups of Voters Have Changed Their Minds

By Andre TartarAndre Tartar and Mira RojanasakulMira Rojanasakul
Updated November 7, 2016
◀ CLINTON MARGIN
TRUMP MARGIN ▶

Bloomberg has been tracking and aggregating all available internal data from 18 national polls, looking at partisanship, the independent voter, race, gender, age and education. Looking at a two-week rolling average, a few trends emerge.


Learn more about each poll and how they work at the Bloomberg Poll Decoder →
NOVEMBER 7, 2016
ALL
Clinton's Overall Lead Holds Steady In Final Stretch

Clinton's national poll lead has fallen from a high of 8.5 points on Oct. 22 in the wake of the final presidential debate to 4.7 points on the eve of Election Day. (That margin falls to 3.4 points when only considering polls conducted after FBI Director Comey's Oct. 28 letter to Congress.)

DEBATE #1 TRUMP TAPE DEBATE #2 DEBATE #3 COMEY LETTER 0 2 4 6 8 10 All . NOV 7 SEPT 11 CLINTON MARGIN +8.5 +4.7 +1.4
NOVEMBER 7, 2016
65 PLUS
Clinton Has Cut Her Deficit Among Older Voters

Americans age 65 and older have traditionally leaned Republican. Since the first presidential debate Clinton has managed to cut Trump's lead among this group by more than 10 points.

DEBATE #1 TRUMP TAPE DEBATE #2 DEBATE #3 COMEY LETTER 0 5 10 15 20 65 plus . NOV 7 SEPT 11 TRUMP MARGIN +15.9 + 4.0
NOVEMBER 7, 2016
ALL DEMOGRAPHICS
No Matter How You Look at It, Comey Letter Hurt Clinton

Looking at the change in our two-week rolling average of polls during the period from Oct. 27 to Nov. 7 shows a drop in support for Clinton across almost every demographic group.

NO COLLEGEWHITE NO COLLEGE18-34REPUBLICANINDEPENDENT/OTHERWHITE50-64MALE35-49FEMALEALLHISPANICWHITE COLLEGECOLLEGEBLACKDEMOCRAT65 PLUSNON-WHITE -6.3-5.7-4.6-4.6-4.5-3.9-3.5-3.3-3.1-3.0-2.9-2.8-2.4-1.8-0.5-0.3-0.1+0.8 Clinton Margin Oct.27 Change fromOct.27—Nov.7 + 0.7-23.5+24.1-75.2- 1.5- 8.6- 1.5- 1.7+12.8+15.4+ 7.6+41.5+10.9+19.3+75.9+83.6- 3.9+50.4
NOVEMBER 7, 2016
INDEPENDENT
Independents Have Broken Toward Trump

There has been a noticeable movement toward Trump among independents since James Comey's letter to Congress on Oct. 28.

DEBATE #1 TRUMP TAPE DEBATE #2 DEBATE #3 COMEY LETTER -10 0 10 20 Independent / Other . NOV 7 SEPT 11 TRUMP MARGIN -10 0 10 20 + 6.0 TRUMP MARGINWITH INDEPENDENTS
NOVEMBER 7, 2016
BLACK
Black Voters Were More Enthusiastic About Obama

Black voters are solidly in Hillary Clinton's corner, but at nowhere near the levels of support they showed for Barack Obama in 2008 or 2012, per exit polls. Black support for Clinton in our Decoder average peaked on September 28, 2016.

DEBATE #1 TRUMP TAPE DEBATE #2 DEBATE #3 COMEY LETTER 70 75 80 85 90 Black . NOV 7 SEPT 11 CLINTON MARGIN +75.4 2012 OBAMA EXIT POLL MARGIN +87 +82.8 +80.5
NOVEMBER 7, 2016
PARTY ID
Party Loyalties Have Diverged, Realigned

As the general election season has worn on, Republican support for Trump has increased to more closely match Democratic support for Clinton. At one point, there was a 10 point margin between them. Looking just at polls conducted after the first Comey letter, Clinton has increased her lead among Democrats by more than Trump has among Republicans.

DEBATE #1 TRUMP TAPE DEBATE #2 DEBATE #3 COMEY LETTER 60 70 80 90 100 Republican Democrat . NOV 7 SEPT 11 MARGIN CLINTON MARGINWITH DEMOCRATS TRUMP MARGINWITH REPUBLICANS 60 70 80 90 100 +83.3 +79.8
NOVEMBER 7, 2016
WOMEN
Women Have Moved Toward Clinton

Women have made a steady shift away from Trump, particularly after the leaked "Access Hollywood" tape—but their support peaked on Oct. 10 and has dipped from there.

DEBATE #1 TRUMP TAPE DEBATE #2 DEBATE #3 COMEY LETTER 0 10 20 30 Female . NOV 7 SEPT 11 CLINTON MARGIN +12.4 + 9.2 +16.7 2012 OBAMA EXIT POLLMARGIN +11
NOVEMBER 7, 2016
GENDER GAP
Women Like Clinton More Than Men Like Trump

Men have always leaned Trump; women have always leaned Clinton. But there was a moment when each group liked their nominee almost exactly the same amount—and another (Oct. 18) when men almost crossed over to Clinton.

DEBATE #1 TRUMP TAPE DEBATE #2 DEBATE #3 COMEY LETTER -10 0 10 20 30 Female men . NOV 7 SEPT 11 CLINTON MARGINWITH WOMEN TRUMP MARGINWITH MEN MARGIN -10 0 10 20 30 +12.4 + 5.0
NOVEMBER 7, 2016
WHITE, NO COLLEGE
Whites With No College Degree Are Steadfast for Trump

After Republicans, Trump's most loyal coalition has been white voters without a college education. Their support for him has been fairly consistent throughout the general election season, though it peaked on September 20, 2016.

DEBATE #1 TRUMP TAPE DEBATE #2 DEBATE #3 COMEY LETTER 15 20 25 30 35 White no college . NOV 7 SEPT 11 TRUMP MARGIN +28.8 +21.7 +29.2