Ohio Senate Race Close, Toomey Ahead in Pa., Fla. Fluid: Poll

Polling by Quinnipiac University of three 2016 Senate races crucial to determining which party controls the chamber shows a tight contest in Ohio, a GOP advantage in Pa. and a race too early to categorize in Fla.

  • In Ohio, Democratic challenger Ted Strickland leads Republican Sen. Rob Portman, 44% to 41%; race has narrowed since June survey when Strickland, state’s former gov., led by 6ppts
  • In Pa., Republican Sen. Pat Toomey leads Democrat Joe Sestak 48-33%; Toomey defeated Sestak by 2ppts to first win seat in 2010
  • In Fla. battle for Senate seat Republican Marco Rubio is relinquishing for presidential quest features “a pack of largely unknown contenders,” poll’s Asst. Director Peter Brown says; survey didn’t conduct matchups
    • Among leading GOP contenders, Lt. Gov. Carlos Lopez-Cantera isn’t well known enough for 86% of voters to have favorable/unfavorable opinion of him; comparable figures for Republican Reps. Ron DeSantis, David Jolly are 87% and 86%, respectively
  • In race for Democratic nomination, 81% have no opinion of Rep. Patrick Murphy, 67% say the same for Rep. Alan Grayson
    • Grayson has 22% unfavorable rating, highest negative marks among all potential candidates from either party; his positive rating is 10%
  • Cook Political Report rates Fla. race “toss up,” rates Ohio and Pa. races as “lean Republican”
    • NOTE: Democrats need to 4-seat pickup to reach 50 in Senate
  • Poll conducted Aug. 7-18; surveyed 1,093 Fla. voters, 1,096 Ohio voters, 1,085 Pa. voters; error margin +/- 3ppts in each race

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