Poll Palooza: The Home Stretch
This story contains corrected material, published on Oct. 30, 2014
With just a few days left before the midterm elections, last-minute polling shows tight races in three hotly contested states.
The Colorado Senate race still looks ominous for Democratic incumbent Mark Udall, and the Florida gubernatorial and Georgia Senate races are going down to the wire, according to new polling by Quinnipiac and Monmouth Universities.
Republican Representative Cory Gardner has a seven-point lead over Udall, bolstered by support from male voters, according to a Quinnipiac poll out Thursday.
Gardner took 46 percent, as he did in the pollsters' last survey, while Udall slipped from 41 to 39 percent, widening the gap slightly.
“This Colorado Senate race has national implications, and it's taken an ugly turn for the incumbent," said Tim Malloy, assistant director of the Quinnipiac University Poll, in a release.
The poll reached 844 likely voters by phone from Oct. 22-27. The margin of error was 3.4 percentage points.
Another Quinnipiac poll released Thursday puts Democratic challenger Charlie Crist in the tiniest of leads ahead of Republican incumbent Rick Scott.
With 43 percent, Crist has a three-point edge on Scott, though this falls within the margin of error, 3.4 percentage points. The last poll showed the two to be tied, each with 42 percent.
The poll attributes the minuscule lead to increasing support for Crist among independent voters. From the last poll, Crist's support in that segment increased by six points, from 41 to 47 percent.
"Independent voters are often the difference in swing states like Florida, but the size of former Gov. Charlie Crist's lead among them is truly remarkable," said Peter A. Brown, assistant director of the Quinnipiac University Poll, in a release.
The poll contacted 817 likely voters from Oct. 22-28.
A Monmouth University poll released Wednesday showed Republican David Perdue leading Democrat Michelle Nunn by eight points with 49 percent of likely voters reached by phone saying they will support him, compared to 41 percent for Nunn. The polling in Georgia has stayed close—a recent CNN/ORC poll put Nunn in the lead by three points, though that fell within the margin of error.
Of respondents who had already voted, 57 percent said they had cast ballots for Nunn, a 15-point lead.
With neither candidate taking more than 50 percent of the vote, a runoff looks likely.
“Perdue is clearly in the lead, but there is a sizable number of truly undecided voters in this race. If most of them swing to Nunn in the final days, a run-off is possible,” said Patrick Murray, director of the poll, in a release.
The poll contacted 436 likely voters by phone from Oct. 26-28. The margin of error was 4.7 points.
CORRECTION: A previous version of this story incorrectly spelled David Perdue's last name.