, Columnist
What Economists Got Wrong About the Great Recession
In general, we should be more modest about our ability to second-guess the market.
Unemployment line, January 1938.
Photographer: Heritage Images/Hulton ArchiveWhat do we know, and not know, about macroeconomics? My coauthor and I are currently revising our economics textbook — one of our decisions is to emphasize the Great Recession and the pandemic over the Great Depression — so I might be expected to have an answer to this question. Instead, standing on one foot, I would like to offer a short primer to guide us through future crises and downturns.
Let’s start with what we don’t know.