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Opinion
Stephen Mihm

It’s Not Just the Economy, Stupid

Despite conventional wisdom, research on past elections suggests that local issues and individual candidates have a bigger influence on midterm outcomes than jobs and prices.

In Georgia, there is a lot more to the Senate race than inflation.

In Georgia, there is a lot more to the Senate race than inflation.

Photographer: Megan Varner/Getty Images 

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The midterms are coming, and with it predictions that the nation’s economic woes will cost Democrats control of Congress. As one pundit on Fox News recently declared, political consultant James Carville’s 1992 adage, “It’s the economy, stupid,” still applies. Polling data seems to support this point of view.

But applying a 30-year-old rule of thumb for a presidential election to the 2022 midterms isn't such a safe bet, if history has any say.