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Joshua Green

Abortion Is the Big X Factor in Midterm Elections

Democrats are angry about the loss of Roe V. Wade, but are they angry enough to win in November?

We’re not in just Kansas anymore.

We’re not in just Kansas anymore.

Photographer: Dave Kaup/AFP via Getty Images

When the Supreme Court decision overturning Roe v. Wade leaked in early May, political professionals split over its potential effect on the midterm elections this fall. Democratic pollster Celinda Lake, who has surveyed public opinion on abortion for years, was among those predicting it would be a major shaping force. Others weren’t so sure, pointing out that attention spans are fleeting and suggesting most Americans would move on.

With the election a month away, it’s safe to say a verdict is in: Lake was right. Abortion rights are shaping up as a big midterm factor. Democratic hopes of holding onto Congress may even hinge on them.