I’m wrong a lot, which is the reason I chose a career - quantitative financial trading - in which you can get rich if you’re right only 51% of the time. Two years ago I considered valuations in the residential housing market and concluded:
Homeowners did not suffer in 2021. The Case-Shiller National Home Price index was up 19%, far outpacing inflation at 7%. Unfortunately, all of the reasons I put forth to suggest the housing market was not facing a disaster melted away.