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Aaron Brown

Unless Rents Rise, Housing Is Set Up for an Epic Crash

All of the reasons to suggest residential real estate is not facing a disaster have melted away. 

The outlook for housing is troubling.

The outlook for housing is troubling.

Photographer: Tim Boyle, Bloomberg via Getty Images

I’m wrong a lot, which is the reason I chose a career - quantitative financial trading - in which you can get rich if you’re right only 51% of the time. Two years ago I considered valuations in the residential housing market  and concluded:

Homeowners did not suffer in 2021. The Case-Shiller National Home Price index was up 19%, far outpacing inflation at 7%. Unfortunately, all of the reasons I put forth to suggest the housing market was not facing a disaster melted away.