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Matthew Yglesias

Democrats Are Pulling Ahead of Republicans, Just in Time for Midterms

Recent primaries and special elections offer rays of hope that voters prefer the blue party this fall.

The party has new hope for November.

The party has new hope for November.

Photographer: Joe Raedle/Newsmakers

When Democrats pulled ahead of Republicans late last week in broad averages on the generic ballot, I didn’t believe it. We’ve seen many large polling errors in Democrats’ favor in recent years, a 50-50 House vote would defy the historical trend toward the incumbent president’s party facing backlash in the midterms, and Joe Biden’s low approval ratings seem inconsistent with Democrats doing well.

But a couple of events on Aug. 9 have made me a believer.