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James Stavridis

A US-China War Over Taiwan Isn't Happening Anytime Soon

Here are five reasons a conflict won’t occur in the next 18 months, contrary to warnings from alarmists in and out of the Biden administration.

Ready to land? 

Ready to land? 

Photographer:  Shang Hongtao/VCG via Getty Images

Tensions, already very high between the US and China over Taiwan, were exacerbated by House Speaker Nancy Pelosi’s “farewell tour” visit to the island. Many analysts are warning that an invasion by Beijing could come sooner rather than later — within 18 months is a common projection — often citing the Ukraine conflict as a model: China playing the part of Russia and bringing what it views as a non-nation sharply to heel.

Based on many years of engagement with the Chinese around the Pacific both operationally and diplomatically, I believe we are years away from any potential military move by Beijing against Taipei, and it is particularly unlikely to happen in the immediate future. There are several reasons.