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One of my least-favorite strains of market writing is the “Markets Are Obviously Big Stupid Idiots Because They’re [Doing Thing]” column. Maybe because I have written so many of them myself, I understand it’s a cheap way to look smart. Get it right and you’re Michael Burry or Nouriel Roubini forever. Get it wrong and nobody remembers, except maybe you, on those dark nights of the soul when you’re staring bleakly into the mirror, realizing you are a fraud who has no business telling other people how to invest money and should have gone to law school like your parents wanted you to do all along.