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John Authers

Bond Landmarks Hint at Revenge of the Monetarists

The peak for inflation may not be in even as the Fed tightens financial conditions. That’s a troubling prospect for markets.

It’s all about this.

It’s all about this.

Photographer: Bloomberg

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Another Monday, another set of landmarks in the bond market. The yield on 10-year Treasury Inflation-Protected securities, or TIPS, is positive again. After its longest ever stay in negative territory, the “real” post-inflation rate at which to borrow or lend money over 10 years is now higher than at the beginning of the pandemic. This startling surge has brought to an end another element of the monetary desperation tactics that followed the lockdowns of March 2020: