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Niall Ferguson

Seven Worst-Case Scenarios From the War in Ukraine

Most conflicts end quickly, but this one looks increasingly like it won’t. The repercussions could range from global stagflation to World War III.

Putting out the fire with gasoline?

Putting out the fire with gasoline?

Photographer: Fadel Senna/AFP/Getty Images

Consider the worst-case scenario.  

I have argued here before that the global situation today more closely resembles the 1970s than any other recent period. We are in something like a new cold war. We already had an inflation problem. The war in Ukraine is like the Arab states’ attack on Israel in 1973 or the Soviet invasion of Afghanistan in 1979. The economic impact of the war on energy and food prices is creating a risk of stagflation.