Biden May Catch Putin in His Own Ukraine Trap

The current conventional wisdom, echoed by U.S. President Joe Biden, among others, is that his Russian counterpart Vladimir Putin intends to re-invade Ukraine in the near future. Military experts who have weighed in on the matter — notably Rob Lee at the Foreign Policy Research Institute and Michael Kofman of the Center for Naval Analyses — have speculated that the Russian military posture points to plans for a ground invasion toward Kyiv, meant to compel Ukraine toward a pro-Russian course or a change in government.

All these predictions are premised on the same foundation: the Russian troops massed on Ukraine’s border. Why would they be there if Putin wasn’t planning some kind of assault?