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Opinion
Justin Fox

We’ll All Have Some Immunity to Covid-19 Soon

The ranks of “immunologically naive” Americans will be awfully small once the omicron wave subsides, and that will require a new reckoning on what make sense.

What happens when almost everybody has some kind of Covid-19 immunity?

What happens when almost everybody has some kind of Covid-19 immunity?

Source: Bloomberg

As Covid-19’s omicron wave begins to subside, one thing seems pretty clear: After it has passed, the number of Americans who are still immunologically naive to Covid-19 — that is, they’ve been neither infected by it nor vaccinated against it — will be quite small.

How small? By my rough estimate, 1.8% of Americans, about six million people, will remain untouched by either vaccines or Covid a month or two from now. I arrived at this by taking the covidestim.org estimates of cumulative U.S. Covid-19 infections through Jan. 19 (257.5 million) and the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention’s estimate of how many Americans are fully vaccinated against Covid (209.5 million) and making several somewhat dodgy assumptions, so I wouldn’t take the exact percentage too seriously. But it’s clearly not a whole lot of people.