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Opinion
Ruth Pollard

Is China About to Tuck Afghanistan Under Its Belt and Road?

Beijing is approaching the situation gingerly, hoping Pakistan can help manage the Taliban but nervous that instability might spill into Xinjiang province

Wang Yi meeting Mullah Abdul Ghani Baradar, political chief of Afghanistan's Taliban on July 28.

Wang Yi meeting Mullah Abdul Ghani Baradar, political chief of Afghanistan's Taliban on July 28.

Photographer: Li Ran/Xinhua News Agency
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China won’t be rushing into Afghanistan any time soon — not to fill the political and security void left by the U.S. and not to expand President Xi Jinping’s flagship Belt and Road project.

However decisive the Taliban’s victory looks right now, the country is far too fragile for Beijing to contemplate anything other than a pragmatic diplomatic engagement with a group it has spent decades trying to work with. It may dangle the promise of enhanced economic relations in front of an Islamist insurgent movement looking to cement key regional relationships, but the likelihood of any infrastructure projects materializing in the short-term is remote.