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Daniel Moss

The Global Recovery May Have Already Peaked

The delta variant and low vaccination rates are bedeviling policy makers, just when we were getting used to healthy growth.



Photographer: Alexander Ryumin/TASS via Getty Images

We were just getting used to the idea of a global economic recovery, an expansion replete with eye-popping numbers seen once every few decades. Too bad it may have already peaked.

Trouble appears to be lurking just beneath the surface of the International Monetary Fund's forecasts showing a hale state of affairs in big commercial powers. Global gross domestic product will gain 6% this year, a projection unchanged from April, according to the IMF’s update of its World Economic Outlook. That would still be the best result in four decades and quite the bounce from a collapse of 3.2% in 2020.