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Daniel Moss

The Global Recovery May Have Already Peaked

The delta variant and low vaccination rates are bedeviling policy makers, just when we were getting used to healthy growth.

Falling.

Falling.

Photographer: Alexander Ryumin/TASS via Getty Images

We were just getting used to the idea of a global economic recovery, an expansion replete with eye-popping numbers seen once every few decades. Too bad it may have already peaked.

Trouble appears to be lurking just beneath the surface of the International Monetary Fund's forecasts showing a hale state of affairs in big commercial powers. Global gross domestic product will gain 6% this year, a projection unchanged from April, according to the IMF’s update of its World Economic Outlook. That would still be the best result in four decades and quite the bounce from a collapse of 3.2% in 2020.