Thanks to a $1.9 trillion stimulus package and accelerating vaccinations, prospects for a heavily caffeinated U.S. recovery are boosting growth projections around the world. For some important emerging markets, however, this economic comeback might be too much of a good thing.
Global gross domestic product will increase 5.6% this year, the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development recently predicted, more than a percentage point higher than its estimates in December. The forecast for U.S. growth almost doubled to 6.5%, the best performance since 1984. (The average rate this century has been less than 2%.) The U.S. is set to outpace Indonesia, Mexico, Turkey and Brazil, and isn’t far off from China, whose forecast was taken down a touch by the OECD to a still impressive 7.8%.