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Opinion
Bill Dudley

Don’t Let the U.S. Economy Hit Stall Speed

The Fed should take out some insurance against a recession.

When unemployment rises, it can rise a lot.

When unemployment rises, it can rise a lot.

Photographer: Mario Tama/Getty Images

People shouldn’t be as worried as they are about the risk of a U.S. recession. That said, it wouldn’t take much to trigger one, which is why the Federal Reserve should take out some insurance by providing added stimulus this week.

Market participants see all sorts of reasons to fret about an imminent slump. Global growth is slowing, trade wars are adding to uncertainty, the economic expansion is getting old and, until recently, yields on short-term Treasury bills were higher than those on long-term notes – the kind of “yield-curve inversion” that has tended to precede recessions.