Would You Bet Against Trump in 2020?
Presidential prediction markets can be a useful corrective to polls.
Which way are the betting markets pointing?
Photographer: BRENDAN SMIALOWSKI/AFPEach week brings a fresh batch of polls about the 2020 presidential campaign, but it’s also worth taking a look at the prediction markets. They can be a very useful source of information, most of all as a check on the human tendency to overreact.
Prediction markets — there are several, which allow people to bet on a particular candidate — are a quick way to get an overview of the state of the campaign. President Donald Trump is currently at about 0.40 to be re-elected, which means that it costs about 40 cents to buy a share that pays $1 if Trump wins. Under normal assumptions about the uncertainty of future economic growth, the markets rate Trump’s chances of winning at 40%.