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Jonathan Bernstein

No, It’s Not a Two-Person Race for 2020

If history is any guide, the Democratic nomination contest is likely to change a lot in the next few months.

Who’s next?

Who’s next?

Photographer: Win McNamee/Getty

Let’s go through this one more time: It’s possible that we understand exactly how the Democratic nomination race is shaping up. But it’s more likely that we don’t.

Everyone seems to be more or less convinced that Elizabeth Warren is now the leading candidate, or perhaps that Warren and Joe Biden are co-leaders. Pundits are asking whether Biden can survive losing Iowa and New Hampshire, and whether his big polling lead in South Carolina can hold up. Those are fair questions. But I’m going to insist – one more time – that it’s still early.