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Jonathan Bernstein

Polls Still Can’t Tell Us Much About 2020

Voters are only now beginning to pay attention to the nomination race. Their opinions could change dramatically.

You say that now ... — You say that now ...
Photographer: Drew Angerer/Getty

By

Jonathan Bernstein

September 19, 2019, 10:30 AM UTC

How much information can we really squeeze out of early primary polls? This week offered some good examples.

Yes, we’re still more than four months away from the Iowa caucuses and the New Hampshire primary. Even so, many voters are paying enough attention that they’re willing to answer polling questions. And I can’t blame pollsters for trying to get beyond simple horse-race questions and push a bit deeper.