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John Authers

Game Theorists Will Never See Iran’s Godot Coming

Markets are pricing in little or no escalation because the alternative is so terrifying. There’s plenty of room below if they’re wrong.

Risk managers discuss the prospect of war with Iran. — Risk managers discuss the prospect of war with Iran.
Photographer: Roberto Ricciuti/Getty Images

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September 17, 2019, 4:01 AM UTC

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The weekend began with explosions in Saudi Arabia and ended with an almighty bang in the oil market, as crude futures briefly rose almost 20%. In the 24 hours that followed, markets moved in the expected direction. Bonds rose, stocks fell, and investors took more risk-averse positions.