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Conor Sen

The 2020 Election Will Shred the Obama Coalition

Watch out for the factions left behind by the Democratic nominee.

Senators Cory Booker and Kamala Harris could go head to head for crucial Democratic blocs.

Senators Cory Booker and Kamala Harris could go head to head for crucial Democratic blocs.

Photographer: Aaron P. Bernstein/Bloomberg

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Only one can be the next Obama. Maybe not even one.

The coalition that Barack Obama built in 2008 was so powerful, and so successful in Democratic primaries, that 2020 contenders are treating it as a blueprint. But in a field with a dozen or more presidential candidates, no one is a perfect match to win over all of the key constituencies that drove Obama to electoral success.