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Andy Mukherjee

Why Lehman’s Third Act Won’t Play in Emerging Markets

The global meltdown didn’t happen. Demographics mean it’s unwise to bet on one now.

Not running out.

Not running out.

Photographer: IStockphoto/Via Getty Images.

Bloomberg Opinion marks the 10th anniversary of Lehman's bankruptcy with a collection of columns from around the world. Read more.

It was supposed to be a play in three acts. Wall Street banks and the U.S. economy took the first blow from the Lehman crisis. Next, the epicenter of trouble moved to Europe, causing a run on sovereign debt. The overhang of global borrowing was then going to culminate in a big emerging-market fiasco, caused perhaps by a disorderly unwinding of China’s post-Lehman credit bubble.

That denouement never materialized for an underappreciated reason: The forces that hastened Lehman’s demise have steadied emerging markets ever since.