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Jonathan Bernstein

Trump vs. #NeverTrump

The Grand Old Party could splinter the way the Democrats did in the 1970s.
Deal with it.

Deal with it.

Photographer: Tom Pennington/Getty Images

What explains Donald Trump's apparent polling surge in the last several days? If it is real, it appears to be linked to his victories in South Carolina and Nevada, since the few up-to-date polls we have mostly precede his performance in last Thursday's debate. It’s possible he could have fallen back over the weekend -- in which case he could lose several states

If he indeed has a commanding lead, however, he could accumulate a lot of delegates on Tuesday. (Delegate allocation in most Super Tuesday states isn't really proportional; it rewards the winner and penalizes the other candidates, especially if someone wins by a substantial margin. ) This would occur just as he is finally facing strong resistance from some Republican activists, conservative media outlets and politicians. They are pledging to stay home or vote for a third-party candidate if Trump is nominated. The most visible Republican to sign on to #NeverTrump so far is Nebraska Senator Ben Sasse.