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Jonathan Bernstein

Some Questions Before Iowa and New Hampshire Vote

Watch the polls and expect a shakeout among mainstream contenders.
Who doesn't love a winner?

Who doesn't love a winner?

Photographer: Andrew Harrer/Bloomberg/Getty Images

We’re only three weeks from the Iowa caucuses and four from the New Hampshire primary, but even at this late date there are more plausible scenarios on the Republican side than can fit into one column. Voters in Des Moines, Cedar Rapids, Concord and Manchester are now being bombarded with advertising, candidate visits and phone calls. 

Here’s what to watch over the next month, concentrating on the known unknowns -- the crucial points we can see from here, but can’t tell which way they will turn.