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Mohamed A. El-Erian

The Fed's Next Move

It's too early to predict a rate hike delay.
Known unknowns.

Known unknowns.

Photographer: Andrew Harrer/Bloomberg

The fragility of the global economy, weakening conditions in the U.S. and recent statements from some Federal Reserve officials have led to a growing acceptance that the central bank won't raise interest rates this year.

But those who now predict the Fed will put off its first increase in almost 10 years until March 2016 may be misreading the broader domestic and international context.