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Gary Shilling

Slow-Growth Pessimists Miss the Mark

Once U.S. consumers deleverage, rapid growth will resume.
Greater use of robots could generate new jobs.

Greater use of robots could generate new jobs.

Photographer: Ricardo Azoury/Getty Images

I don't agree with the slow-growth-indefinitely forecasts that I detailed in Monday's column

I've long said that, until global deleveraging is completed, gross domestic product will continue to grow by about 2 percent annually. I've also noted that reducing debt levels after a financial crisis, especially one caused by a borrowing binge, normally takes about a decade. This episode is eight years old, and at the rate things are going, it may take longer than 10 years. U.S. household debt relative to after-tax income has fallen to 102 percent from 130 percent, but it's still a long way from the 65 percent norm.