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Megan McArdle

The Moral of the Greek Story

European leaders were wrong to think they could solve problems Athens created.
Remember drachma? You will.

Remember drachma? You will.

Photographer: Milos Bicanski/Getty Images

I can't shake the feeling that I've spent the last five years watching the Grexit Special Edition Director's Cut, and now the finale music is finally swelling. The problem is, I've felt like this before, because this crisis seems to be directed by Peter Jackson. That's not unusual for financial crises, mind you; to haul out a Rudi Dornbusch quote I've used many times before: "The crisis takes a much longer time coming than you think, and then it happens much faster than you would have thought. ... It took forever and then it took a night."

So is this the actual end, or do we still have more sessions with Aragorn and the elves standing around looking soulful? Greece is reportedly going to miss its next payment to the IMF. Of course, it wouldn't be the first time that a nation has temporarily defaulted on an IMF loan. The larger question is the outcome of the referendum the prime minister has called for next Sunday, aka the #greferendum. Polls seem to show that 56 percent of Greeks want to stay in the euro, even if it means more austerity. But those polls were taken before the greferendum was called; now that they are voting on a specific proposal, how many people are actually going to vote yes? Perhaps even more importantly, who goes to the polls? Certain groups stand to disproportionately lose from further concessions, such as public sector workers. They will make darn sure they head to the polls on July 5.