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Jonathan Bernstein

Don't Trust the Polls in These Five States

Georgia's runoff fever, Alaska's geography, Colorado's undercounting of Democrats, and South Dakota's and Kansas's nontraditional races.
The final frontier of political polling.
The final frontier of political polling.

What if the polls are wrong?

Plenty of races are toss-ups even at this late date, the polls tell us. But it's possible that idiosyncratic elements in particular contests will make the sophisticated polling averages less reliable than usual, even if overall the opinion surveys turn out to be correct. And we don't know the political direction of the effect.