The shale revolution is over, says Astenbeck Capital Management LLC's Andrew J. Hall, the so-called god of crude oil trading. And the coming supply shortage will push the price of oil as high as $150 a barrel within five years. Or maybe not: The shale revolution is really just getting started, others argue, and oil prices will stay at about $100 a barrel for years or decades to come.
Both sides of this debate base their predictions on reams of data, as two articles in Bloomberg Markets explain. But the disagreement reflects great uncertainty about how much accessible shale oil and gas remains underground -- and how much that supply will influence prices in the years ahead.