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Megan McArdle

Don't Worry About Losing Your Health Care ... Yet

It looks like people are moderately afraid of “employer dumping” -- employers terminating benefits and forcing employees to buy insurance policies on the exchanges.
Not likely to be one of your Internet stops in the near future.
Not likely to be one of your Internet stops in the near future.

The Morning Consult discusses a poll today on people's views of the Affordable Care Act. It looks like people are moderately afraid of "employer dumping" -- employers terminating benefits and forcing employees to buy insurance policies on the exchanges. Most of them seem to think that this would have a somewhat or very negative impact on their coverage and experience. Unsurprisingly, this breaks down strongly along partisan lines: Republicans are most likely to think Obamacare will negatively affect them, Democrats the least.

But how likely is this? There are all sorts of estimates out there, but all of them are barely one step above a wild guess. We've never done anything like this before, so how do we know how employers will react? But there's one thing worth noting: If you believe the poll, the very strength of the negative expectations probably makes employers less likely to do this.